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Thread: 联合汇华:欧元如履薄冰

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    Default 联合汇华:欧元如履薄冰

    昨日汇价突破近期关键支撑,在欧洲央行利率决定前,持续的疲弱数据,令市场对欧元表现悲观。德国11月零售销售月率下跌-1.3%,大幅低于市场预期的0.6%,年率录得-3.2%;11月工业生产月率下跌0.9%,而市场预期的为0.4%的增长,年率录得3.5%低于市场预期的4.6%和前值的6.0%。法国11月贸易帐逆差扩大至47.9亿欧元。数据显示,经济增长下行的风险已经从美国波及到全球范围,尽管昨日还公布了欧元区第三季度gdp季率从初值0.7%上修至0.8%年率保持在2.7%不变,并远高于欧盟认定的潜在增长率2.2%,但是一系列疲弱的数据却显示,未来经济衰退的风险加大,可能导致今日欧央行的利率声明不像以前那么态度强硬,而且一旦确认全球进入经济衰退,那么美国国债将再次吸引投资者的青睐,转而对美元资产形成支撑。今日央行的利率决定将在20:45公布,市场普遍预期为维持利率4.0%不变,21:30央行行长特里谢将召开新闻发布会,也是今日的重要焦点。投资者预期从中寻找到未来的利率方向,如果讲话强硬,强调通胀仍是控制重点,那么将对欧元形成支撑,但是如果措辞温和,担忧经济风险,则欧元将再次遭遇沽售。






      技术上看,目前欧元处于关键水平,日图重新考验1.4580/1.4600的颈线水平,日图短期均线走平,并轻微拐头向下,指标呈现中性,暗示目前的水平十分关键。小时图看,汇价跌破1.4670,并进一步测试1.4640一线,是今年初以来的跳空缺口支撑,也是短线的重要水平,一旦失守,弥补缺口,则有进一步下行至1.4550的风险,而如果能够守住,则欧元还有反弹测试1.4700/20的机会,但预计进一步的空间可能也比较有限,因形态上轻微看淡。从操作上看,央行利率决定前,可能持续位于低位盘整,如果能够守住1.4640,冒险的交易者可少量买入,但如果跌破1.4620/10,则反向作空,欧元可能随后有进一步下行至1.4580/50的风险。而目前欧元只有突破1.4750并守稳其上,才表明临时性低点已经形成,随后将重新恢复上涨。

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    经济增长下行的风险

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