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Thread: Long Term analysis

  1. #31
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    Despite early rise to 93.78, the retreat from there and the break of 91.25 suggest the first leg of upmove from 84.82 (tentatively a leg of wave (2)) has ended there and b leg of this wave (2) is now in progress for weakness to 89.30 (50% Fibonacci retracement of the a leg from 84.82), then towards 88.24-32 (61.8% Fibonacci retracement and previous support), however, reckon chart level at 87.36 would contain weakness and bring c leg of wave (2) next month.

    Our latest preferred count is that, wave 1 ended at 87.10 followed by a 3-legged wave 2 at 101.45 and the wave 3 is unfolding with wave (1) of 3 sub-divided into i: 91.73, ii: 97.79, iii: 88.01, then wave iv at 92.33, therefore, the wave v of (1) has ended at 84.82 and wave (2) is now unfolding with a leg possibly ended at 93.78) and b leg of wave (2) should be limited to 87.36 and bring c leg of wave (2) later.

    On the upside, expect recovery to be limited to 92.00/10 and bring such a decline in b leg of wave (2). Only above resistance at 93.78 would indicate the rise from 84.82 is still in progress for headway to 95.00/10 (61.8% Fibonacci retracement of 101.45-84.82) but reckon price would falter well below resistance at 97.79.

    Our alternate count is that only wave (3) of 1 has ended at 87.10 and the rise from there to 101.45 is the wave (4) of 1 and the (5) of 1 has possibly ended at 84.82. In the event the greenback is able to close above 95.10 on a daily basis, this would add credence to this slightly more bullish count (only for the near term) and bring stronger correction in wave (2) of 3 towards 97.79.

  2. #32
    In Profit cesar's Avatar
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    Well, UJ is still moving into downtrend areas, but is probably a reverse. Japan economy is moving into darkness territory, and interventions are on the game for sometime ago.....
    75 is the number for next BoJ intervention if price move til there. I believe we can see that price and lower prices (67yens). Question is: May BoJ fight alone against all mayor market movers? Will see... For now, interventions only help investors to Sell for higher areas.

  3. #33
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    I think the USD/JPY pair will still make bullish movement as it has break Daily resistance zone and now heading the nearest Weekly resistance zone at 81.50. A BUY position for Long Term is a good choice....

  4. #34
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    The carry trade
    One theory for the stronger yen is the unwinding of carry trades by Japanese investors.
    The story goes like this:
    Traders who had borrowed yen and sold it to invest in higher-yielding assets, including other currencies, became fearful of the European debt crisis and a potential hard landing in China. They repatriated their yen, despite miniscule domestic rates of return. At least it’s a trusted return of capital. If you are Japanese, the yen is a safe haven. Once risk seemed to
    be receding in mid-February 2012, though, Japanese carry-traders were said to be ramping up carry trades again.

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