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Thread: Daily Eur/usd Outlook - +1.3495+

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    Default Daily Eur/usd Outlook - +1.3495+

    Although renewed selling at 1.3477 y'day has pre
    ssured euro n recent erratic decline is likely to
    extend marginally below this week's low at 1.3436,
    'loss of momentum' shud keep price abv sup at 1.34
    07 n yield a rebound later.

    Venture long on next fall but abv 1.3500 needed
    to confirm low is made n extend twd 1.3520/30...

    Rate: +1.3495+
    Strategy: +Target met+
    Position: +Long at 1.3420+
    Objective: 1.3495
    Stop-Loss:
    Resistance: 1.3499/1.3532/1.3565
    Support: 1.3416/1.3370/1.3340

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    Default

    no any daily analysis for EU today ?

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    EUR/USD remains under pressure and we look for a slide back to the 21.3307
    uptrend near term. Rallies are expected to remain capped by 1.3530/65
    (near term downtrend) and while below here the market will remain directly offered.
    We believe the market has charted an interim top at 1.3680 recently and suspect that the
    uptrend at 1.3307 will be eroded.
    Is Cookin!!!

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    Default Ranging for today

    I beleive today is ranging for EU.. 20 pips away above and below pivot @ 1.3443..

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    Default

    28 May EUR/USD Daily
    00:20 GMT - No change into early trade, with prices balanced above the1.3410/14 lows. Scope is for a push back to the 1.3455 intraday high, but clearance should be limited, with the 1.3473
    high not seen reached. A later break of 1.3410/14 targets 1.3405, with1.3347 to follow.

    R5: 1.3528 * 21 May (w) high
    R4: 1.351 intraday high
    R3: 1.3502 * 23 May high
    R2: 1.3473 25 May high
    R1: 1.3455 intraday high
    S1: 1.3410/14 * 23-25 May lows
    S2: 1.3405 * 11 Apr low
    S3: 1.3347 10 Apr low
    S4: 1.3339 9 Apr low
    S5: 1.3317 * 3-4 Apr (m) lows
    Is Cookin!!!

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    EUR/USD came under increasing downside pressure last week and we look for
    similar price action this week. We continue to look for a slide back to the 1.3317 uptrend near
    term (see chart). Rallies are expected to remain capped by 1.3530/53 (near term downtrend)
    and while below here the market will remain directly offered.
    We believe the market has charted an interim top at 1.3680 recently and suspect that the
    uptrend at 1.3317 will be eroded. Failure here would target 1.3100 enroute to the 1.2810/5
    year uptrend.
    Is Cookin!!!

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    29 May EUR/USD Daily
    10:10 - EUR has seen a strong recovery, clearing 1.3573 to reverse theearlier down bias. Look next for 1.3502 and 1.3528, with beyond 1.3544. Support now begins at 1.3473 and strengthens
    at 1.3460/55, which should hold. (Below are 1.3432, 1.3420 and 1.3414.[AW]

    R5: 1.3627 7 May high
    R4: 1.3610 * 16 May high
    R3: 1.3544 17 May high
    R2: 1.3528 * 21 May high
    R1: 1.3502 23 May high
    S1: 1.3473 25 May high, break
    S2: 1.3460/55 * day/hour high area
    S3: 1.3432 hour low, cong.
    S4: 1.3420 current 29 May low
    S5: 1.3410 * 25 May low
    Is Cookin!!!

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    After a thin( a 13-pip range) holiday trading on Monday,EUR shot to the upside in early morning trading today pushing through the 1.3463/40 levels, the location of its May 11'07 low/daily 50 ema to an intra day high of 1.3494.As at the time of this analysis, it was seen bumping into its broken rising trendline.However,a clean invalidation of 1.3534/63 zone, its May 04'07/April 19, 24 & 23'07 lows/channel top is required to reduce short term downside risks and bring further upside gains towards 1.3626/36 level, its May 07/April 20'07 highs. If a successful breach of this area is seen, then the next upside objective lies at 1.3668/81 zone, its Dec'04/2007 highs with a loss of there resuming its medium term upside campaign targeting 1.3748 level, its 100% Fib Exp. (1.2483-1.3681 from 1.2865) and possibly beyond. Its RSI indicator remains supportive of this new upmove.Equally,if EUR fails to sustain its intra day gains above the mentioned levels,risk for lower prices towards 1.3463/40 levels, its May 11'07 low/daily 50 ema followed by its .50 Ret (1.3071-1.3681 rally)/Dec'06 high/channel base at 1.3395/63 are envisaged. A close below this zone opens the door for additional losses aiming at the 1.3245/59 zone, its Jan 20'06 high/.50 Ret (1.3071-1.3441 rally)/Feb 27'07 high ahead of 1.3085/71 levels, its Mar 05 & 09'07 lows. Weekly momentum continues to lend support to the pair's downside outlook. All in all, as long as the pair continues to trade below 1.3534/63 zone bias for downside pressure remains.

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    Default EU Mid-Day Technical Report

    EUR/USD rebounds strongly to as high as 1.3519 today. As discussed before, with 1.3364 cluster support (38.2% retracement of 1.2865 to 1.3681 at 1.3369) remains intact, it's still unclear whether fall from 1.3681 is merely a correction to rise from 1.2865 or the start of a deeper decline. Break of 1.3501 resistance, with bullish convergence condition in 4 hours MACD and RSI, is arguing that the fall from 1.3681 is corrective and has completed with three waves to 1.3411 already. At this point, further rise is in favor towards short term falling trend line resistance (now at 1.3555) and then 1.3609. Break will confirm such case and bring retest of 1.3681 high. On the downside, it will take a break below 1.3418 support to indicate fall from 1.3681 has resumed for 1.3364 cluster support.

    In the bigger picture, risk of 1.3681 being an important medium term top is still high. As discussed before, medium term up trend from 1.1639 is interpreted as having first move completed with three waves up to 1.2978, subsequent sideway consolidation completed at 1.2483. Rise from 1.2483 is treated as resumption of the whole up trend from 1.1639. With such interpretation, we'd expect risk of medium term reversal to increase significantly after EUR/USD met resistance zone between 1.3668 and 100% projection of 1.1639 to 1.2978 from 1.2483 at 1.3822. Hence, focus is now on reversal signals.

    On the downside, break of the short term rising channel support is already a warning that the rise from 1.2865 has completed. Decisive break of 1.3364 cluster support (38.2% retracement of 1.2865 to 1.3681 at 1.3369) will confirm such case. More importantly, with bearish divergence condition in daily MACD and RSI, this will warn that the whole rally from 1.2483 has also completed, and, so is the whole up trend from 1.1639. Focus will then be back to medium term rising channel support (now at 1.3029).

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    Default

    30 May EUR/USD Daily
    11:05 - EUR is working lower, and we expect an early test of the rangelows 1.3418/10. Failure is also anticipated and will signal scope next through 1.3405 to 1.3367 and 1.3339. Resistance
    is between 1.3435/39 and 1.3457. A move back above here remains necessary to delay lower scope. (There is more resistance around 1.3480, then up to 1.3520/28.) [AW]

    R5: 1.3528 * 21 May high
    R4: 1.3510 intraday high
    R3: 1.3480 hour high, cong.
    R2: 1.3457 current 30 May high
    R1: 1.3432/9 overnight lows, break
    S1: 1.3418 29 May low
    S2: 1.3414/0 * 23-25 May lows
    S3: 1.3367 4 Dec high
    S4: 1.3339 * 9 Apr low
    S5: 1.3286 * 30 Mar low
    Is Cookin!!!

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    The rally earlier this week faltered ahead of the near term downtrend, at 1.3545
    currently. This maintains our short term bearish bias and we continue to target the 1.3332/ 7
    month uptrend. Intraday we would allow for further ranging but slightly longer term, we believe
    the market has charted an interim top at 1.3680 recently and suspect that the uptrend at
    1.3323 will be eroded. Failure here would target 1.3100 enroute to the 1.2810/5 year uptrend.
    Is Cookin!!!

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    31 May EUR/USD Daily
    11:40 - EUR remains steady, but we see congestion up to 1.3457 as a barrier. A move above here is still necessary to reverse the down bias. Even then, there is more resistance near 1.3480,
    then up to 1.3520/28. Support is 1.3424/20 ahead of 1.3406/05. Later clearance stays in focus and will retarget 1.3367, 1.3339. [AW]

    R5: 1.3528 * 21 May high
    R4: 1.3510 intraday high
    R3: 1.3480 hour high, cong.
    R2: 1.3457 * 30 May high
    R1: 1.3447 current 31 May high
    S1: 1.3424/0 today, hour lows
    S2: 1.3406/5 * 30 May, 11 Apr lows
    S3: 1.3367 4 Dec high
    S4: 1.3339 * 9 Apr low
    S5: 1.3286 * 30 Mar low
    Is Cookin!!!

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    Default

    Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.3401; (P) 1.3429; (R1) 1.3454

    EUR/USD spiked higher in early US session but after all it's still kept in established range of 1.3406 and 1.3519. Outlook remains unchanged. Further downside is in favor towards 1.3364 cluster support (38.2% retracement of 1.2865 to 1.3681 at 1.3369). However, as mentioned before the main question is that with 1.3364 cluster support remains intact, it's still unclear whether fall from 1.3681 is merely a correction to rise from 1.2865 or the start of a deeper decline. Bullish convergence condition in 4 hours MACD and RSI is suggesting a short term bottom could be around the corner too.

    Hence, even though further dip to 1.3364 cluster support is still in favor, firm break is needed to confirm underlying bearishness, otherwise, short term outlook is still rather neutral. On the upside, above 1.3519 will encourage further rise towards short term falling trend line resistance (now at 1.3544) and then 1.3609.

    In the bigger picture, risk of 1.3681 being an important medium term top is still high. As discussed before, medium term up trend from 1.1639 is interpreted as having first move completed with three waves up to 1.2978, subsequent sideway consolidation completed at 1.2483. Rise from 1.2483 is treated as resumption of the whole up trend from 1.1639. With such interpretation, we'd expect risk of medium term reversal to increase significantly after EUR/USD met resistance zone between 1.3668 and 100% projection of 1.1639 to 1.2978 from 1.2483 at 1.3822. Hence, focus is now on reversal signals.

    On the downside, break of the short term rising channel support is already a warning that the rise from 1.2865 has completed. Decisive break of 1.3364 cluster support (38.2% retracement of 1.2865 to 1.3681 at 1.3369) will confirm such case. More importantly, with bearish divergence condition in daily MACD and RSI, this will warn that the whole rally from 1.2483 has also completed, and, so is the whole up trend from 1.1639. Focus will then be back to medium term rising channel support (now at 1.3029).


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    Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.3424; (P) 1.3449; (R1) 1.3476

    EUR/USD continues to engage in choppy trading inside established range of 1.3406 and 1.3519 today. The short term outlook remains unchanged. Further downside is in favor towards 1.3364 cluster support (38.2% retracement of 1.2865 to 1.3681 at 1.3369). However, as mentioned before the main question is that with 1.3364 cluster support remains intact, it's still unclear whether fall from 1.3681 is merely a correction to rise from 1.2865 or the start of a deeper decline. Bullish convergence condition in 4 hours MACD and RSI is suggesting a short term bottom could be around the corner too.

    Hence, even though further dip to 1.3364 cluster support is still in favor, firm break is needed to confirm underlying bearishness, otherwise, short term outlook is still rather neutral. On the upside, above 1.3519 will encourage further rise towards short term falling trend line resistance (now at 1.3538) and then 1.3609.

    In the bigger picture, risk of 1.3681 being an important medium term top is still high. As discussed before, medium term up trend from 1.1639 is interpreted as having first move completed with three waves up to 1.2978, subsequent sideway consolidation completed at 1.2483. Rise from 1.2483 is treated as resumption of the whole up trend from 1.1639. With such interpretation, we'd expect risk of medium term reversal to increase significantly after EUR/USD met resistance zone between 1.3668 and 100% projection of 1.1639 to 1.2978 from 1.2483 at 1.3822. Hence, focus is now on reversal signals.

    On the downside, break of the short term rising channel support is already a warning that the rise from 1.2865 has completed. Decisive break of 1.3364 cluster support (38.2% retracement of 1.2865 to 1.3681 at 1.3369) will confirm such case. More importantly, with bearish divergence condition in daily MACD and RSI, this will warn that the whole rally from 1.2483 has also completed, and, so is the whole up trend from 1.1639. Focus will then be back to medium term rising channel support (now at 1.3029).


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    Default

    today the market is quiet i think he's ready to up or down in the next week

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