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Thread: Daily Forex Technicals for Wednesday December 19

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    Thumbs up Daily Forex Technicals for Wednesday December 19

    Daily Forex Technicals for Wednesday December 19
    EUR - Pivot: 1.4406 Support 1: 1.4375 Support 2: 1.4337 Resist 1: 1.4444 Resist 2: 1.4475 120 Day MA: 1.4110
    GBP - Pivot: 2.0161 Support 1: 2.0097 Support 2: 2.0048 Resist 1: 2.0210 Resist 2: 2.0274 120 Day MA: 2.0370
    JPY - Pivot: 113.2265 Support 1: 112.9230 Support 2: 112.4510 Resist 1: 113.6985 Resist 2: 114.0020 120 Day MA: 115.44
    CAD - Pivot: 1.0071 Support 1: 1.0000 Support 2: 0.9943 Resist 1: 1.0128 Resist 2: 1.0199 120 Day MA: 1.0140
    CHF - Pivot: 1.1513 Support 1: 1.1490 Support 2: 1.1462 Resist 1: 1.1541 Resist 2: 1.1564 120 Day MA: 1.1730
    EUR/CHF - Pivot: 1.6586 Support 1: 1.6560 Support 2: 1.6517 Resist 1: 1.6629 Resist 2: 1.6655 120 Day MA: 1.6530
    EUR/JPY - Pivot: 163.1667 Support 1: 162.7033 Support 2: 161.9467 Resist 1: 163.9233 Resist 2: 164.3867 120 Day MA: 162.73
    EUR/GBP - Pivot: 0.7145 Support 1: 0.7129 Support 2: 0.7104 Resist 1: 0.7170 Resist 2: 0.7185 120 Day MA: 0.6930
    GBP/CHF - Pivot: 2.3217 Support 1: 2.3161 Support 2: 2.3120 Resist 1: 2.3259 Resist 2: 2.3315 120 Day MA: 2.3890
    GBP/JPY - Pivot: 228.4450 Support 1: 227.8150 Support 2: 227.1700 Resist 1: 229.0900 Resist 2: 229.7200 120 Day MA: 235.10
    CHF/JPY - Pivot: 98.3700 Support 1: 98.1500 Support 2: 97.8550 Resist 1: 98.6650 Resist 2: 98.8850 120 Day MA: 98.41
    AUD/JPY - Pivot: 97.4000 Support 1: 96.7800 Support 2: 95.9900 Resist 1: 98.1900 Resist 2: 98.8100 120 Day MA: 100.30

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    Thumbs up News For Today

    *** All times listed for economic events are denominated in Eastern Standard Time ***
    *** As always times are subject to change ***

    2:00 (GE) Nov Producer Prices: M/M consensus expectations are 0.4%; The prior number was 0.4%. Y/Y Consensus expectations are 2.1%; The prior number was 1.7%.
    3:00 (SZ) SNB to publish monthly bulletin
    3:30 (SW) Riksbank Rate Decision: Expected to hold rates at 4.00%
    4:00 (EU) ECB's Liebscher to speak in Vienna
    4:00 (EU) ECB's Trichet to speak before EU commission
    4:00 (GE) Dec IFO Business Climate: Consensus expectations are 103.8; The prior number was 104.2.
    4:00 (GE) Dec IFO Current Assessment: Consensus expectations are 109.9; The prior number was 110.4.
    4:00 (GE) Dec IFO Expectations: Consensus expectations are 98.0; The prior number was 98.3.
    4:00 (IT) Oct Industrial Orders: M/M consensus expectations are -0.7%; The prior number was 0.3%. Y/Y Consensus expectations are 4.8%; The prior number was 2.8%.
    4:00 (IT) Oct Industrial Sales: M/M consensus expectations are 1.1%; The prior number was -3.6%. Y/Y There are no consensus expectations are ; The prior number was 2.3%.
    4:30 (UK) Bank of England Minutes
    5:00 (EU) Oct Construction Output: M/M there are no consensus expectations for this number; The prior number was 0.0%. Y/Y there are no consensus expectations for this number; The prior number was 1.5%.
    6:00 (UK) Dec CBI Distributive Trades Report
    7:00 (US) MBA Mortgage Applications: There are no consensus expectations for this number; The prior number was 2.5%.
    12:15 (SZ) SNB's Roth to speak
    13:00 (US) Fed's Lacker to speak on economic outlook in North Carolina

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    Thumbs up US news for today

    (US) Former US Treasury Sec Summers said that the gov't should consider a $50B-$75B tax cut in order to prevent a recession - WSJ

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    Thumbs up Asian Market News

    Asian Market Update: Asian Stocks Fail To Rally After ECB Liquidity Injection
    - Japanese government predicts an end to deflation in 2008: Japan's government cut its FY07 economic growth forecast to 1.3% from its prior forecast of 2.1%, but now sees FY08/09 nominal GDP growth at 2.1%, ahead of real GDP growth of 2.0%. If their forecast turns out to be correct, it will be the first time in 11 years that nominal growth will exceed real growth. By definition, deflation would end if nominal growth exceeds real growth. - Leading index suggests solid Australian growth in 2008: (AU OCT WESTPAC LEADING INDEX MOM: 0.5% V 0.6% prior; Prior revised to 0.6% from 0.8%) The leading index grew at an annualized rate of 5.5% in October, up from 5.3% in September, remaining above its long-term trend of 4.2%. WestPac said that Australia's economy "can expect solid growth over the next three to nine months," adding that they expect Australia's economy to grow at 4.0% in 2008. Futures traders are pricing in a 42% probability that the Reserve Bank of Australia will hike interest rates to 7.00% at its February meeting. - Forex: The high-yielding antipodean currencies (AUD and NZD) were the big winners in today's Asian session, with AUD/USD trading comfortably above 0.8600 and NZD/USD testing resistance at 0.7575. The USD stayed in tight ranges against the European majors, while the JPY managed to recover some losses incurred during the New York session. EUR/USD trading was choppy, with some analysts speculating that today's ECB liquidity injection may provide further support to the USD towards the end of the year (as some banks would convert the borrowings from EUR to USD). Between 17:00 ET and 23:096 ET: USD/JPY -0.12%, AUD/USD +0.28%, NZD/USD +0.28%, CHF/JPY -0.12%, USD/CAD -0.14%, NZD/CAD +0.17%, USD index -0.08% - China set to grab market share from Aussie banks: A Chinese government fund has bought a small stake in ANZ Bank, according to sources. The source said that it was not China Investment Corp., China's sovereign wealth fund. Such a move could set the stage for banking M&A down under in 2008. - Equities: The Bank of New York index of Asian ADRs gained 1.7% by the end of Tuesday's U.S. session. S&P futures gained +0.25% between 16:30 ET and 22:52 ET, peaking above 1470. At 22:52 ET Japan's Nikkei is +0.20%, Australia's ASX is +0.27% and the Shanghai Composite Index is +2.37%. South Korean markets were closed due to the presidential elections. M&A speculation lifted Japanese steelmakers, while banks rallied after Credit Suisse turned bullish on Japanese financials. Goldman Sachs expects Japan's beleaguered housing market to bottom soon, and upgraded Japanese REITs. In Australia, Centro Properties' share recovered some losses and rallied more than 60% after the company said that they are not being forced to sell any assets, adding that it has not broken any of its lending covenants. Chinese equities are trading higher on unconfirmed press reports that the Chinese government will not seek to sell local market shares in an effort to slow the booming stock market. - Commodities: Nymex crude oil gained +0.40% between 18:00 ET and 23:01 ET, last quoted at $90.44/bbl, as traders get ready for tomorrow's weekly U.S. inventories data. Spot gold traded lower by -0.21% on profit-taking, while Shanghai Copper is higher on bargain hunting. Some chartists say that gold looks technically weak, especially if EUR/USD had to decline towards the end of the year.

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    Thumbs up

    Buy Trigger this AM in GBP
    Here's a text-book counter-trend day-trade this AM in GBP.

    One of the tenants for this methodolgy is we don't take a buy signal unless we have exsisting support. In this case we have support in the way of the much mentioned 17 month bull trendline -- blue line -- and the previous days low -- black line.

    Note the pink cross hairs which identifies the buy trigger on the close of that bar. The trigger came at 5:55 AM ET, after all the news releases were out -- another tenant in my plan is to not trade ahead of news releases.

    There is so much great info on this chart that were you trading the pound at this time, it would be hard pressed to explain why you missed this trade.

    Notice the double bottom on the bull trendline through the news; then the tiny inside bars following that 2nd leg of the double bottom. At that point you should be salivating. We would still be patient and wait for the 5&5 crossover which is the actually trigger. Now drop down to the technical indicatiors -- training wheels -- below: the MACD cross, MACD Histogram, RSI and the stochastic -- all giving buy signals. Remember the technical indicators are only as good as the support or resistance they turn on. Generally the previous days high or low alone is enuf structure to commit to a c-t day-trade.

    If you had pulled out to the 60 minute chart here you would also see a wide double bottom w/ double divergence.

    Your exit would have been a recross of that 5&5 on the 15 min chart. We would have the option of taking a portion off and letting a portion ride w/ a trailing stop.
    sm_win

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