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Thread: Technical Analysis of EUR/YEN

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    Default Technical Analysis of EUR/YEN

    Resistance levels: 164.00/164.50
    Support levels: 163.30/162.50/162.00

    The Cross has risen back beyond 163.80 earlier today, still trading in the 163.25-30 and 163.90 range. No change in our view. The uptrend remains intact for further rally towards 164.00 and 164.50 new record highs in mid and longer term. On downside, below 163.30 first Support may turn price back towards 162.60-50 Friday bottom Look to buy on pullback for new record highs beyond 164.00 and 164.50.

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    Quote Originally Posted by kazim2k7 View Post
    Resistance levels: 164.00/164.50
    Support levels: 163.30/162.50/162.00

    The Cross has risen back beyond 163.80 earlier today, still trading in the 163.25-30 and 163.90 range. No change in our view. The uptrend remains intact for further rally towards 164.00 and 164.50 new record highs in mid and longer term. On downside, below 163.30 first Support may turn price back towards 162.60-50 Friday bottom Look to buy on pullback for new record highs beyond 164.00 and 164.50.
    new records for all Yen pairs is expected but dont forget that there is a big problem now betwen china and amirican and any japanees declarations about carry traders may kill all thses pairs and get the down

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    EUR/JPY is at last showing signs of failure ahead of long term Fibonacci resistance level of 164.05. This is a major upside objective
    and the market is at last correcting lower. We note the major loss of upside momentum as depicted by daily RSI and favour a slide back to 160.85
    (the 23.6% retracement of the move higher from the 150.75/March low).
    Is Cookin!!!

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    EUR/JPY is inching closer to the 164.01 level, but the current bounce from Thu's low looks to be losing some steam. Mkt is expected to develop a neutral range now near the highs into today's NY close. We think that this range can take shape between 163.80/164.01 on the upside and 163.35/20 on the downside.

    R5: 164.25 minor projection
    R4: 164.10 minor projection
    R3: 164.01 * 23 May high
    R2: 164.00 figure
    R1: 163.80 * break level
    S1: 163.35 hourly low
    S2: 163.20 * break level
    S3: 163.00 figure
    S4: 162.87 hourly low
    S5: 162.82 * Thu's low
    Is Cookin!!!

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    28 May EUR/JPY Daily
    00:13 GMT - Choppy price action is back within reach of the 164.01 weekly high of 23 May. Clearance, however, is expected to be difficult, as the intraday bias turns lower, with some
    settling back looked for, targeting the 163.45 intraday low. Still lower is 163.10.

    R5: 165.25 * channel
    R4: 165 ** cong from Sep 92
    R3: 164.1 trendline
    R2: 164.01 * 23 May high
    R1: 163.81 25 May high
    S1: 163.45 intraday low
    S2: 163.1 intraday low
    S3: 162.45 intraday low
    S4: 162.15 ** 25 May (w) low
    S5: 161.75 * intraday highs
    Is Cookin!!!

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    EUR/JPY charted a surprising recovery from 162.20 last week – this does suggest there is some reluctance to break lower presently
    and it is possible that the market will just hold sideways below its long term Fibonacci resistance level of 164.05/25 ahead of further strength.
    However we continue to highlight the major loss of upside momentum as depicted by daily RSI and remain wary of a correction back to 160.85 (the
    23.6% retracement of the move higher from the 150.75/March low). This remains our preferred scenario.
    Slightly longer term, a break above 164.25 (on a closing basis) will persuade us that the market is ready to resume its upmove presently.
    Is Cookin!!!

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    30 May EUR/JPY Daily
    06:20 GMT - Choppy price action is settling above the 163.06 low, withintraday studies allowing for a push towards the 163.70 intraday high. Still higher is 164.00, but the underlying
    daily bias remains heavy, with a test of here not looked for. A later break of 162.94 targets 162.45.

    R5: 165 ** cong from Sep 92
    R4: 164.33 * 29 May high
    R3: 164.15 trendline
    R2: 164 intraday high
    R1: 163.7 intraday high
    S1: 163.06 intraday low
    S2: 162.94 29 May low
    S3: 162.45 intraday low
    S4: 162.15 ** 25 May (w) low
    S5: 161.5 intraday low
    Is Cookin!!!

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    EUR/JPY is pushing hard into major resistance at 164.05/25. The daily RSI remains negative and we remain wary of failure here and
    only a close above 164.25 will convince us that the market is capable of further strength currently.
    The market has shown very little desire to correct lower recently and last week charted a strong rebound from 162.20, as this point we will assume
    while above 162.20 further probes on the upside remain feasible and only below here would imply scope for a correction to 160.85. Currently we
    maintain a downside bias.
    Is Cookin!!!

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    No change in view - EUR/JPY continues to push hard into major resistance at 164.05/25. The daily RSI remains negative and we
    remain wary of failure here and only a close above 164.25 will convince us that the market is capable of further strength currently.
    The market has shown very little desire to correct lower recently and last week charted a strong rebound from 162.20, as this point we will assume
    while above 162.20 further probes on the upside remain feasible and only below here would imply scope for a correction to 160.85.
    Is Cookin!!!

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    market rising towards 163.73 or 164 and i mean up

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    Daily Pivots: (S1) 162.97; (P) 163.34; (R1) 163.72

    Outlook remains unchanged as EUR/JPY continues to consolidate below 164.29 high. As discussed before, upside momentum remains unconvincing, in particular with bearish divergence condition staying in 4 hours MACD and RSI and with daily MACD remains below signal line. Risk of short term reversal remains high. EUR/JPY could now be in formation of a diagonal triangle to conclude the rally from 150.75. Hence, even though another rise could still be seen, upside will likely be limited by 61.8% projection of 137.16 to 159.63 from 150.75 at 164.64 on further loss of momentum and bring reversal.

    On the downside, break of short term rising trend line (now at 162.47) will be the first warning that a top is formed. Further break of 162.18 will indicate that the diagonal triangle mentioned has possibly completed. Deeper decline should then be seen to 161.05 support and then 159.60.

    In the bigger picture, EUR/JPY's previous break above medium term rising channel resistance suggests that strength of the rally from 150.75 is stronger than we originally thought. But still, interpretation of rally from 130.60 remains unchanged. First wave up ended at 143.60, subsequent correction ended at 137.167. The third wave up ended at 159.63 while fourth wave correction has ended at 150.75. Rise from there represents the final advance in this structure, targeting 61.8% projection of 137.16 to 159.63 from 150.75 at 164.64 and could terminate there.

    On the downside, rise from 150.75 could still resume as long as 159.60 support holds. However, sustained trading below 159.60 will warn that prior break of medium term rising channel resistance was merely a throw-over. Also, this will give a serious warning signal that the whole rise rise from 130.60 has ended. EUR/JPY should set to test the medium channel support (now at 153.74) in such case.


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    Daily Pivots: (S1) 163.20; (P) 163.57; (R1) 164.12



    EUR/JPY recovers further today and is now pressing 164 level but outlook remains basically unchanged. As discussed before, upside momentum remains unconvincing, in particular with bearish divergence condition staying in 4 hours MACD and RSI and with daily MACD remains below signal line. Risk of short term reversal remains high. EUR/JPY could now be in formation of a diagonal triangle to conclude the rally from 150.75. Hence, even though another rise could still be seen, upside will likely be limited by 61.8% projection of 137.16 to 159.63 from 150.75 at 164.64 on further loss of momentum and bring reversal.

    On the downside, break of short term rising trend line (now at 162.47) will be the first warning that a top is formed. Further break of 162.18 will indicate that the diagonal triangle mentioned has possibly completed. Deeper decline should then be seen to 161.05 support and then 159.60.

    In the bigger picture, EUR/JPY's previous break above medium term rising channel resistance suggests that strength of the rally from 150.75 is stronger than we originally thought. But still, interpretation of rally from 130.60 remains unchanged. First wave up ended at 143.60, subsequent correction ended at 137.167. The third wave up ended at 159.63 while fourth wave correction has ended at 150.75. Rise from there represents the final advance in this structure, targeting 61.8% projection of 137.16 to 159.63 from 150.75 at 164.64 and could terminate there.

    On the downside, rise from 150.75 could still resume as long as 159.60 support holds. However, sustained trading below 159.60 will warn that prior break of medium term rising channel resistance was merely a throw-over. Also, this will give a serious warning signal that the whole rise rise from 130.60 has ended. EUR/JPY should set to test the medium channel support (now at 153.74) in such case.

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    01 Jun EUR/JPY Daily
    06:28 GMT - Intraday studies remain overbought, with difficulty seen sustaining further immediate gains. The 164.33 high should remain intact. Some settling back is looked for, with support
    at the 163.70 intraday low, Beneath here is 163.50, with stronger reactions at the 162.94-163.01 lows. This should underpin initial tests.

    R5: 165 * figure
    R4: 164.45 trend from 27 Apr
    R3: 164.33 ** 29 May (m) high
    R2: 164.15 trendline
    R1: 164 intraday high
    S1: 163.7 intraday low
    S2: 163.5 hourly buyers
    S3: 163.01 * 31 May low
    S4: 162.94 * 29-30 May lows
    S5: 162.45 intraday low
    Is Cookin!!!

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    Daily Pivots: (S1) 163.20; (P) 163.57; (R1) 164.12

    Not change for the EUR/JPY as it continues to gyrate in tight range below 164.29 high. As discussed before, upside momentum remains unconvincing, in particular with bearish divergence condition staying in 4 hours MACD and RSI and with daily MACD remains below signal line. Risk of short term reversal remains high. EUR/JPY could now be in formation of a diagonal triangle to conclude the rally from 150.75. Hence, even though another rise could still be seen, upside will likely be limited by 61.8% projection of 137.16 to 159.63 from 150.75 at 164.64 on further loss of momentum and bring reversal.

    On the downside, break of short term rising trend line (now at 162.47) will be the first warning that a top is formed. Further break of 162.18 will indicate that the diagonal triangle mentioned has possibly completed. Deeper decline should then be seen to 161.05 support and then 159.60.



    In the bigger picture, EUR/JPY's previous break above medium term rising channel resistance suggests that strength of the rally from 150.75 is stronger than we originally thought. But still, interpretation of rally from 130.60 remains unchanged. First wave up ended at 143.60, subsequent correction ended at 137.167. The third wave up ended at 159.63 while fourth wave correction has ended at 150.75. Rise from there represents the final advance in this structure, targeting 61.8% projection of 137.16 to 159.63 from 150.75 at 164.64 and could terminate there.

    On the downside, rise from 150.75 could still resume as long as 159.60 support holds. However, sustained trading below 159.60 will warn that prior break of medium term rising channel resistance was merely a throw-over. Also, this will give a serious warning signal that the whole rise rise from 130.60 has ended. EUR/JPY should set to test the medium channel support (now at 153.74) in such case.

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    Daily Pivots: (S1) 163.74; (P) 163.95; (R1) 164.34

    EUR/JPY edges higher to 164.30 but again lacks decisive momentum to go further. Upside momentum remains unconvincing, in particular with bearish divergence condition staying in 4 hours MACD and RSI and with daily MACD remains below signal line. Risk of short term reversal is still high. EUR/JPY could now be in formation of a diagonal triangle to conclude the rally from 150.75. Hence, even though another rise could still be seen, upside will likely be limited by 61.8% projection of 137.16 to 159.63 from 150.75 at 164.64 on further loss of momentum and bring reversal.

    On the downside, break of short term rising trend line (now at 162.86) will be the first warning that a top is formed. Further break of 162.18 will indicate that the diagonal triangle mentioned has likely completed. Deeper decline should then be seen to 161.05 support and then 159.60.

    In the bigger picture, EUR/JPY's previous break above medium term rising channel resistance suggests that strength of the rally from 150.75 is stronger than we originally thought. But still, interpretation of rally from 130.60 remains unchanged. First wave up ended at 143.60, subsequent correction ended at 137.167. The third wave up ended at 159.63 while fourth wave correction has ended at 150.75. Rise from there represents the final advance in this structure, targeting 61.8% projection of 137.16 to 159.63 from 150.75 at 164.64 and could terminate there.

    On the downside, rise from 150.75 could still resume as long as 159.60 support holds. However, sustained trading below 159.60 will warn that prior break of medium term rising channel resistance was merely a throw-over. Also, this will give a serious warning signal that the whole rise rise from 130.60 has ended. EUR/JPY should set to test the medium channel support (now at 154.12) in such case.


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