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Thread: nzd daily comments

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    Default nzd daily comments

    Australian dollar and New Zealand dollar advanced to 0.8439 and 0.7188 against the U.S. currency respectively and then retreated strongly to 0.8343 and 0.7077 in Australian morning due to the selloff in sterling and cross selling versus the Japanese yen (unwinding of carry trades

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    Support Line On Nzdjpy H4
    Attached Thumbnails Attached Thumbnails nzdjpy.jpg  

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    follow this triangle.
    Attached Thumbnails Attached Thumbnails nzdusd.jpg  

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    today...PM:21:00
    sell ... nzd/usd 0.7860...
    take profit at...0.7760

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    Nzd/usd is on the extreme overbought side and with the current carry trade unwinding there is like ly ness of nzd/usd going back to .7600

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    Forex Depth Analysis: NZD/USD
    The dollar fell for a sixth day against the yen and traded near a record low versus the euro as traders increased bets that the Federal Reserve will cut interest rates by three-quarters of a percentage point this month.

    The dollar also held near its lowest ever against a basket of currencies of major trading partners before an industry report tomorrow that may show companies in the U.S. added the fewest jobs since 2003.

    The following technical analysis gives us a detailed lookout on what is expected to happen to NZD/USD

    The buying point is at 0.8021; based on a failure swing bottom.

    Fibonacci 61.8% is the take profit at 0.8103
    Second Fibonacci 61.8% is the stop loss at 0.7985
    The selling point is at 0.7970; based on a break strong support level.

    Previous support is the take profit at 0.7930
    Fibonacci 38.2% is the stop loss at 0.8022
    To strengthen our analysis; we use many other indicators, starting with MACD (Moving Averages convergence divergence); we notice the crossing of MACD line to the signal line below the zero level. In order to find the power of the market, we use RSI (Relative Strength Index).With RSI; we can determine that the market is in an uptrend.

    The ROC is very important to understand the demand of the market and as we see on the graph it is in a bullish direction. The Stochastic oscillator crosses %D line below 20% level and continues to go higher.

    * The following analysis is for information only; Finotec is not responsible for any decisions or misinterpretations based on the given text.

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    buy at 0.7880 and sell at 0.8000 during newyork sessions

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    Default Nzd Weekly Outlook

    As we mentioned, the New Zealand dollar and the Australian dollar show a strong correlation to each other, which makes sense given their geographical proximity, dependence upon commodity exports, and similar trends in monetary policy changes. However, the Reserve Bank of New Zealand was the far more hawkish central bank in the Asia-Pacific region, as they did not hesitate to hike the official cash rate four times in mid-2007 to a record high of 8.25 percent. While the RBNZ continues to hold their hawkish stance, they are unlikely to consider raising rates further. Indeed, RBNZ Governor Alan Bollard said on March 6 that slowing growth in the New Zealand economy will most likely not curb inflationary pressures and that "the official cash rate will need to remain at current levels for a significant time." Nevertheless, Bollard also cited major downside risks to growth, including "a further deterioration in the world economy, tighter credit conditions, and the potential for a more severe downturn in the housing market." As a result, as long as CPI growth does not accelerate significantly this year, the RBNZ may be quick to cut rates in 2008 if the global and New Zealand financial markets become uncomfortably unstable. This, along with the potential for sharp drops in commodity prices add to evidence pointing towards further declines in the New Zealand dollar.
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  9. #9
    Pinalli
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    Hi,

    The New Zealand dollar fell almost 2% against the US Dollar trading as low as $0.5016, a six-year low New Zealand wage growth eased from record levels in the fourth quarter, data showed on Monday, leaving the way open for the New Zealand Central Bank to cut their rates even more and therefore i am expecting some more disturbances in the trend soon.

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    on the 15 minute chart
    there is a bearish candle closed below the support
    so i expect we will see down trend

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