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Thread: Eur/usd

  1. #1
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    Default Eur/usd

    EUR/USD -6 July 09
    Today EUR/USD is looking strong but may be in narrow range, because we saw a steep decline in last week. It seems that this week market is in uncertainties. There area some uncertainties related to direction.
    A hike above 1.3990 would be the first indication of a upward, with 1.4020 behaving as resistance but 1.4080 a motive target beyond. 1.4050 is also acting like a resistance.
    A crash below 1.3950 would show some weakness and overall indications is a move from 1.3840, but a strong support level seems at sure levels so a move to that level is not highly likely. There are some Support levels, like 1.3940-1.3930, and 1.3900-1.3890, 1.3880-1.3870.

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    good analysis reealjrd...my openon we r going to see eur/usd heading north

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    Bullish evergreen22's Avatar
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    EUR/USD was knocked into the 1.4360s by the surprise move by the Bank of England to extend its quantitative easing program by an additional GBP 50 bln. GBP/USD of course led the way, dropping initially to 1.6824 before a period of consolidation before extending losses to 1.6750 during the New York afternoon. Rebounds were limited to 1.6789. EUR eases as low as 1.4330, taking out support from earlier in the week in the 1.4355/65 area. It penetrated the old 1.4338 highs but the fall extended only to 1.4330 before a modest bounce.

    USD/JPY held firm for much of the session, edging up to test 95.80 resistance but it gave ground late in the afternoon as EUR/JPY saw some selling pressure. The greenback ends at 95.42.

    Commodity currencies were moderately weaker with some minor risk aversion felt in New York from the losses in Shanghai equities overnight. AUD/USD eased to 0.8367 before ending at 0.8390. USD/CAD ends at 1.0680 from 1.0680 highs.

    US payrolls are seen falling 320,000 though Goldman Sachs is calling for a fall of only 250,000. That outcome would give the reflation trade yet another boost and would send the “risk” trade into the stratosphere.
    On God We Trust, The Rest We Audit

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    Default Forex Support Resistance

    Forex Support Resistance EURUSD

    1,4235 - 1,428 - 1,4316 - 1,4345 - 1,4375

    1,4191

    1,4152 - 1,4117 - 1,4078 - 1,4011 - 1,3972
    On God We Trust, The Rest We Audit

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    Tuesday, 11 Aug 2009 - 11:00 AM GMT
    EUR/USD
    Trend: Upward
    Buy EUR/USD at 1.4172 TP 1.4202
    Resistances :1.4198 - 1.4266
    Supports : 1.4083 - 1.4036
    On God We Trust, The Rest We Audit

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    Default Eur/usd

    EUR/USD:
    The pair remained undecided during the day, showing that the strong movement of the low of the previous days may be ending. We should be aware of the level of resistance at 1.4230 and support at 1.41, because the break of one of these levels will tell the next trend.
    On God We Trust, The Rest We Audit

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    H1 graph
    The pair is consolidating between levels 1.4190 and 1.4000 by forming a head and shoulders trend-turning figure (between the lower bound of B-B+ (broken) uptrend and the neckline). Therefore, we have two variants of events to develop in a short-term perspective:

    1. If the pair rises above level 1.4190, it will get to key resistance 1.4300.

    2. If the pair drops below level 1.4080 (below the Q trend line), it will get to intermediate support 1.4000.

    The pair is unlikely to rise above level 1.4190 before European session starts (it will lack trading volume), and volatility at the market will only appear during the session open. By that time head and shoulders figure may become irrelevant since it will be overdrawn. Correspondingly, level 1.4190 will also become irrelevant then and volatility will go on. In such case we can expect formation of a triangle or a flag figure.

    eur usd forex forecast

    H4 graph (from 08.09.09)
    The pair retreated by going below level 1.4300 (went under E and Z trend lines), which was a precondition for reaching the first support level 1.4100 (the lower bound of B-B+ daily uptrend, B+ trend line). A correction is quite possible from there back to resistance level 1.4300, and then downtrend will be resumed. In case the pair gets below 1.4100 (the lower bound of B-B+ daily uptrend) for the second time, it will get down to support level 1.3850 (the lower bound of C-C+ weekly sideways trend).

    Trend status: downtrend
    Resistance: 1.4300 (key)
    Support: 1.4100 (strong), 1.4010 (intermediate), 1.3950 (intermediate), 1.3850 (key)

    eur usd forex forecast

    Daily graph (from 08.09.09)
    The pair went below level 1.4300 (got under E and Z trend line), which was a precondition for reaching the first support level 1.4100 (the lower bound of B-B+ daily uptrend, B+ trend line).

    The market is lacking a stimulus to hold ground above level 1.4300 (this level was characterized as a strong resistance in previous forecast), which is evidence that the pair is looking for a strong support now. A strong support is supposed to be found at level 1.3850 (the lower bound of C-C+ weekly sideways trend, C trend line.) But before hitting that level the market must confidently go below level 1.4100, which will be a signal, that daily downtrend has started to develop. An intermediate drop target is supposed to be found at support level 1.3850 and the target at 1.3285.

    Next, before the pair starts to drop to level 1.3285, the pair must get under a very strong support 1.3850, made up by C and D trend lines. Correction is possible from that support to level 1.4100, and possibly to 1.4300 (if 1.4100 doesnt resist decently). After the pair gets under level 1.3800, the first wave of weekly downtrend is supposed to start, having the drop target set to support level 1.3285.

    Trend status: sideways
    Resistance: 1.4300 (strong)
    Support: 1.4100 (strong, but intermediate), 1.3850 (key).

    eur usd forex forecast

    Weekly graph (from 05.24.09)
    The pair is set against the accumulation of supports 1.4100 and 1.4400 formed by E and F trend lines correspondingly. These are very strong trend lines. Moreover, Z trend line passes through level 1.4400, what further increases the importance of this resistance thus making it a key one. Strengths and chances are equal so, basically, either 1.4100 or 1.4400 may become a turning level (we shall examine daily graph for details). In the 4th correctional wave, the pair will go for a correction from one of these levels to support level 1.3285 and then, in the 5th wave, it will head to the maximum 1.4720 to update it (level 1.4720 update is assumed by the picture at daily graph as well as by the fact that Y trend line got broken). All these five waves will make up the D-D+ uptrend; its extremum will be found at resistance level 1.4935 or 1.5300.

    eur usd forex forecast

    Monthly graph (from 05.24.09)
    Strategically, the graph shows that the pair is developing a downtrend having the target set to level 1.1000 (Q trend line). This situation took effect after the P-P+ uptrend had been broken along with E-E+ trend and F trend line. But there are reasons that until the maximum 1.4720 is updated, the pair is unable to develop a downtrend to 1.1000. That reasons are well seen on weekly graph. Besides, its a simple logic that the pair cant go to 1.1000 from current levels prior to formation of a trend-continuing figure (like flag, which is being formed now) or a side trend which would update the maximum 1.4720

    Above the level 1.4720 is an accumulation of resistance levels 1.4935 and 1.5300 (these levels are examined in detail at weekly graph). Hence, after updating the maximum 1.4720 the pair will push off 1.4935 or, if it will get over 1.4935, off 1.5300 (which is a key level). Accumulation of these resistances is meant to become a turning, key level for the pair; and a supporting point for the flag figures higher bound. From there, the market will develop a downtrend aimed at the figures lower bound, roughly at level 1.2800. After passing that level the flag figure will have been executed and the next dropping target will be set to level 1.1000 (Q trend line). Then, a correction is supposed to be performed from there to level 1.3000 and down again to 1.0000.
    I would like to note that the feeling arises as if the right shoulder of a head and shoulders trend-turning figure is being formed now, however we definitely wont see a clear head and shoulders figure there, especially if the pair goes up to level 1.5300.
    On God We Trust, The Rest We Audit

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    we can see 1.4500 or higher, but after the resistance at 1.4444 area, this must drop first more, this is my opinion, so short all rises you see.
    Do not Over trade nor expose your account because my opinion, we could see 250/350 moves soon.
    On God We Trust, The Rest We Audit

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    setting long to break even...she could test previous swing high (4400-4450) or maybe even run to the top of the channel (4550-4600)...

    a move below 4080 would signal a mid term top and i'd look for shorts...
    On God We Trust, The Rest We Audit

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    EUR/USD:
    The pair remained undecided during the day, showing that the strong movement of the low of the previous days may be over. We should be aware of the level of resistance at 1.4250 and support at 1.41, because the breaking of one of these levels will begin the next movement.
    On God We Trust, The Rest We Audit

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