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Thread: Weekly and Daily Range

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    Smile Weekly and Daily Range

    Weekly range on E/J for ww20 was estimated from 163.80 to 161.26. Happy Trading

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    Default Weekly Technical Commentary

    Support 163.00..162.20..161.00..160.40.
    Resistance 164.02..165.00..166.00..167.00.

    This week: →
    This month: →

    Still very difficult as we continue just below the 1998 equivalent high at 164.00, a key long term chart level. Sideways work means the Euro is no longer overbought and momentum is still positive. Other Yen crosses are also at key levels, for example GBP/JPY at 241.00, AUD/JPY and CHF/JPY at 100.00. The Yen Crosses are also surprisingly well bid considering where they are trading. We still feel that markets would benefit from a good corrective clear-out so we shall allow for a drop some time this month. However, the longer we hold above 159.00 the more price action will look like neat consolidation at current very high levels and the less likely another slide becomes. We continue to urge a very cautious stance.


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    The same story again. EUR/JPY edged to new record high of 164.29 last week but lacked decisive follow through buying to push it further higher. Upside momentum remains unconvincing, in particular with bearish divergence condition staying in 4 hours MACD and RSI and with daily MACD remains below signal line. Risk of short term reversal is still high. EUR/JPY could now be in formation of a diagonal triangle to conclude the rally from 150.75. Hence, even though another rise could still be seen, upside will likely be limited by 61.8% projection of 137.16 to 159.63 from 150.75 at 164.64 on further loss of momentum and bring reversal.

    On the downside, break of short term rising trend line (now at 162.86) will be the first warning that a top is formed. Further break of 162.18 will indicate that the diagonal triangle mentioned has likely completed. Deeper decline should then be seen to 161.05 support and then 159.60.

    In the bigger picture, EUR/JPY's previous break above medium term rising channel resistance suggests that strength of the rally from 150.75 is stronger than we originally thought. But still, interpretation of rally from 130.60 remains unchanged. First wave up ended at 143.60, subsequent correction ended at 137.167. The third wave up ended at 159.63 while fourth wave correction has ended at 150.75. Rise from there represents the final advance in this structure, targeting 61.8% projection of 137.16 to 159.63 from 150.75 at 164.64 and could terminate there.

    On the downside, rise from 150.75 could still resume as long as 159.60 support holds. However, sustained trading below 159.60 will warn that prior break of medium term rising channel resistance was merely a throw-over. Also, this will give a serious warning signal that the whole rise rise from 130.60 has ended. EUR/JPY should set to test the medium channel support (now at 153.98) in such case.






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    Price actions of EUR/JPY played out pretty much as expected. Even though edging higher to 164.59 last week, upside was just limited by mentioned 61.8% projection of 137.16 to 159.63 from 150.75 at 164.64. Subsequent sharp decline from 164.59 has both the short term rising trend line and 162.18 support taken out. This confirmed that EUR/JPY has completed a diagonal triangle formation at 164.59 on bearish divergence condition in 4 hours MACD and RSI and should have concluded the rally from 150.75.

    Hence, short term outlook is turned bearish and further fall is expected to follow towards support zone of 159.60 and 38.2% retracement of 150.75 and 164.59 at 159.30. Sustained break above mentioned 164.64 is needed to confirm underlying bullishness.

    In the bigger picture, EUR/JPY is now at a critical point. Whole up trend from 130.60 is interpreted as having first wave up ended at 143.60, subsequent correction ended at 137.167. The third wave up ended at 159.63 while fourth wave correction has ended at 150.75. Rise from there represents the final advance in this structure, and could have ended at 164.59, just missing target of 61.8% projection of 137.16 to 159.63 from 150.75 at 164.64. In other words, 164.59 could indeed be the top of the whole rise from 130.60.

    Focus is now on 159.30/60 support zone. Break of this support zone will add more weight to case that 164.59 is indeed the important medium term top. Further decline should then be seen towards medium term rising channel support (now at 153.98) and 55 weeks EMA (now at 154.16). Sustained break of this important support will confirm such case and turn medium term outlook bearish for 150.75 support first.

    However, strong rebound from 159.60 will switch favor to the case that EUR/JPY could merely be in sideway consolidation to the rise from 150.75 only and another medium term rally could be seen after finishing such consolidation. Though, sustained break of 61.8% projection of 137.16 to 159.63 from 150.75 at 164.64 is still needed to confirm such case.




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    EUR/JPY dipped to as 161.49 last week but staged a strong rally since then on broad based yen weakness. In particular, EUR/JPY broke above 164.59 resistance and reached as high as 165.28 to close the week strongly. This rally confirmed that prior fall from 164.59 was merely a correction to whole rise from 150.75 and has completed. From a short term angle, further rise is expected to follow this week as long as 164.27 minor support holds. Touching of 164.27 will indicate a short term top is possibly formed and bring consolidation before another rally.

    In the bigger picture, strong break of 61.8% projection of 137.16 to 159.63 from 150.75 at 164.64 was also a significant development that indicates the underlying bullishness of EUR/JPY is stronger than we originally thought. Though, interpretation of the rise from 130.60 remains unchanged. First wave up ended at 143.60, subsequent correction ended at 137.167. The third wave up ended at 159.63 while fourth wave correction has ended at 150.75. Rise from there represents the final advance in this structure. Hence next upside target will be 100% projection of 137.16 to 159.63 from 150.75 at 173.22. On the downside, it will take a break of 161.59 support to indicate rise from 150.75 has completed. Otherwise, further rally is still in favor even in case of pull back.

    In the longer term picture, regardless of the internal structure, rally from 88.97 has now taken out key resistance level of 162.42 and 38.2% retracement of 285.56 (79 high) to 88.97 (00 low) at 164.07. Next important long term resistance will be at 188.22 and 50% retracement of 285.56 to 88.97 at 187.27.








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