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Thread: Weekly and Daily Range

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    Smile Weekly and Daily Range

    Weekly Range for ww20 was estimated around 120.94 to 118.86. Happy Trading

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    Weekly Range for ww21 was estimated around 121.80 to 119.90

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    USD/JPY finally broke out of a short term triangle consolidation last week and surged to as high as 122.13. USD/JPY is now at a juncture. Firstly, break of of triangle consolidation is usually terminal, secondly, USD/JPY is approach key resistance of 122.17, thirdly, bearish divergence condition is still possible in 4 hours MACD and RSI. Risk of short term reversal is increasing as USD/JPY approaches 122.17 key resistance. Even though further rally is still mildly in favor as long as 121.78 minor support holds, sustained trading above 122.17, with a weekly close above, is needed to confirm underlying strength in USD/JPY. Below 121.78 will warn that a short term top is possibly formed and turn focus back to inner rising trend line support (now at 121.20).

    In the bigger picture, since the current rally from 115.13 is not clearly impulsive, it's being treated as part of a consolidation pattern that started at 122.17. Having said that, upside of this rise will likely be limited by 122.17 and bring another fall to retest 115.13 low before finishing the consolidation. But still, a break of 119.86 resistance turned support is needed to signal rise from 115.13 has completed first. Otherwise further rally could still follow.

    However, strong break of 122.17 resistance will indicate that the correction from 122.17 is already completed at 115.13. That is, the current rise from there represents resumption of the whole up trend from 108.99. In such case, the up trend is expected to extend further to 61.8% projection of 108.99 to 122.17 from 115.13 at 123.28 first.

    In the longer them picture, whether correction from 121.38 has completed with three waves down to 108.99 remains a question. But with 114.02/41 support zone remains intact, the rise from 108.99 is still in progress and hence favors that rise from 108.99 represents resumption of the whole rally from 101.65. Strong break above 122.17 will add much weight to this case. And with this interpretation, next medium term target will be 100% projection of 101.65 to 121.38 from 108.99 at 128.72.








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    Japan

    the week begins with a revision to the Q1 GDP data and the strength in the recent capex survey suggests some upside risk. However, other recent data releases have been less impressive, with machinery orders in particular much weaker over the past few months. Domestic CGPI, current account and the tertiary index are also due, while the BoJ meets and is likely to leave rates and its general policy message unchanged. It will be interesting to see how their latest monthly report treats the weakness in orders.

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    USD/JPY's extended the fall from 122.13 last week to as low as 120.78. Such decline, together with bearish divergence condition in 4 hours MACD and RSI as well daily MACD's turn below signal line indicate that 122.13 should at least be a short term top. Hence, even though USD/JPY did rebound impressively after reaching failing to take out 120.78 low again, short term outlook will remain bearish as long as 122.17 key resistance holds and another fall is still in favor towards short term rising trend line support (now at 120.30).

    Recapping previous discussions, since the rally from 115.13 is not clearly impulsive, it's being treated as part of a consolidation pattern that started at 122.17. Having said that, upside of this rise will likely be limited by 122.17 and bring another fall to retest 115.13 low before finishing the consolidation. The signal of a short term top and failure to take out 122.17 key resistance is supporting this view so far. Break of mentioned short term rising trend line will add more weight to this case which should be confirmed by sustained break of 119.43 cluster support (38.2% retracement of 115.13 to 122.13 at 119.46).

    However, strong break of 122.17 resistance will indicate that the correction from 122.17 is already completed at 115.13. That is, the current rise from there represents resumption of the whole up trend from 108.99. In such case, the up trend is expected to extend further to 61.8% projection of 108.99 to 122.17 from 115.13 at 123.28 first.

    In the longer them picture, whether correction from 121.38 has completed with three waves down to 108.99 remains a question. But with 114.02/41 support zone remains intact, the rise from 108.99 is still in progress and hence favors that rise from 108.99 represents resumption of the whole rally from 101.65. Strong break above 122.17 will add much weight to this case. And with this interpretation, next medium term target will be 100% projection of 101.65 to 121.38 from 108.99 at 128.72.




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    today the usd jpy is very crazy

    its going up and down so its not moving in trend

    so stay away from usd jpy today

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