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Thread: Weeklay and Daily Range

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    Smile Weeklay and Daily Range

    Weekly Range for U/Chf for ww 20 was estimated around 1.2287 to 1.2047. Happy Trading ....

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    USD/CHF's correction from 1.2331 was supported by mentioned short term rising trend line and rebounded strongly to as high as 1.2327 to close the week with strength. Whole rise from 1.1993 is still in progress towards 61.8% retracement of 1.2571 to 1.1993 at 1.2350. On the downside, below 1.2229 will turn short term outlook neutral and could bring deeper another fall to 1.2198 support or lower.

    In the bigger picture, previous break of 1.2282 cluster resistance (50% retracement of 1.2571 to 1.1993 at 1.2282) confirms that fall from 1.2571 has already completed at 1.1993 with bullish convergence condition in daily MACD and RSI. More importantly, this will increase the chance that USD/CHF is about to complete a medium term head and shoulder bottom formation (ls: 1.1919, h: 1.1878, rs: 1.1993). Sustained break of 61.8% retracement at 1.2350 and neckline resistance (1.2768 to 1.2571, now at 1.2344) will add more weight to this case. Stronger rally should then be seen to 1.2571 first and then 1.2768.

    However, below 1.2124 cluster support (61.8% retracement of 1.1993 to 1.2331 at 1.2122) will indicate that rebound from 1.1993 has possible completed and save the case that recent choppy price actions could merely be part of a medium term triangle consolidation. And, down trend from 1.3283 should still resume after completing such consolidation in such case.

    The longer term picture is rather unclear at this moment because as mentioned above, price actions from 1.1919 could either be forming a reversal pattern or is just a consolidation pattern. Also, USD/CHF is somewhere in the middle of a long term range of 1.1288 and 1.3283. But the outlook should be much clear in the next few weeks after confirming the medium term pattern.








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    USD/CHF's correction from 1.2331 was contained above mentioned 1.2124 cluster support (61.8% retracement of 1.1993 to 1.2331 at 1.2122) and reached 1.2146 only. Subsequent strong rally last week has pushed USD/CHF above 1.2331 high, confirming that whole rise from 1.1993 has resumed and USD/CHF is now pressing an important resistance of 61.8% retracement of 1.2571 to 1.1993 at 1.2350.

    Recapping previous discussions, USD/CHF could be completing a medium term head and shoulder bottom formation (ls: 1.1919, h: 1.1878, rs: 1.1993) which will confirm the completion of whole down trend from 1.3283. At this point, the neck line (1.2768 to 1.2571, now at 1.2321) was taken out already. Sustained break of 1.2350 fibo resistance will add much credence to this case and bring retest of 1.2571 high. Break will confirm the head and shoulder formation and have medium term outlook turned bullish for 1.2768 resistance and then 1.3283 high.

    From a short term angle, the above case will hold as long as 1.2146 support holds. But a break of 1.2146 will indicate rise from 1.1993 has completed and switch favor back to the case that choppy price actions from 1.1919 could merely be part of a medium term triangle consolidation. And, down trend from 1.3283 should still resume after completing such consolidation in such case.

    The longer term picture is rather unclear at this moment because as mentioned above, price actions from 1.1919 could either be forming a reversal pattern or is just a consolidation pattern. Also, USD/CHF is somewhere in the middle of a long term range of 1.1288 and 1.3283. But the outlook should be much clear in the next few weeks after confirming the medium term pattern.




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    USD/CHF's rally from 1.1993 extended further to as high as 1.2468 last week before turning sideway. Friday's dip through 1.2414 minor support, with 4 hours MACD staying below signal line indicates an intraday top is formed at 1.2468. Initial bias will be on the downside this week as pull back goes, heading towards 4 hours 55 EMA (now at 1.2365). But downside should be supported well above 61.8% retracement of 1.2146 to 1.2468 at 1.2269 and bring another rise. Break of 1.2468 will indicate recent rally has already resumed for 1.2517 high.

    In the bigger picture, USD/CHF should have completed a medium term head and shoulder bottom formation (ls: 1.1919, h: 1.1878, rs: 1.1993) after taking out the neckline resistance which should also confirm the completion of whole down trend from 1.3283. Break of 1.2571 will confirm the head and shoulder bottom formation and have medium term outlook turned bullish for 1.2768 resistance and then 1.3283 high.

    On the downside, it will take a break below 1.2146 support to indicate the rally from 1.1993 support has completed. In such case, favor will be switched back to the case that choppy price actions from 1.1919 is merely part of a medium term triangle consolidation. And, down trend from 1.3283 should still resume after completing such consolidation in such case.

    In the longer term picture, the medium term reversal pattern indicates that fall from 1.3283 has completed at 1.1878. The structure of this decline suggests that it could merely be a correction to the whole rebound from 1.1288. The is, such rebound from 1.1288, which is treated as correction to multi-year down trend from 1.8305, is indeed still in progress and could eventually bring USD/CHF towards 38% retracement of 1.8305 to 1.1288 at 1.3968 and 100% projection of 1.1288 to 1.3283 from 1.1878 at 1.3873. Firm break of 1.2768 resistance will add more credence to this case.








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