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Thread: Aud Levels

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    Default Aud Levels

    Australian Dollar 0.7885

    Initial support a 0.7798 (Mar 13 low) followed by 0.0.7751 (Mar 8 low). Initial resistance is now at 0.8205 (Aug 16 high) followed by 0.8350 (Aug 15 reaction high)

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    Growth in the Index slowed from 6.3% in November 2007 to 4.1% in January 2008. Around 1 percentage point of the 2.2 percentage points reduction was due to the collapse in the Australian share market, with a point due to a slowdown in overtime worked.

    The recent fall in the Westpac Consumer Sentiment Index was spectacular. The Index fell by 9.1% to its lowest level since 1993. The 3 month fall in the Index was the sharpest 3 month decline in the history of the Survey. The measure on whether now is a good time to buy a house was the second lowest on record and sentiment towards purchasing motor vehicles was the lowest on record. Consumers now see bank deposits as the preferred form of saving with real estate and shares losing considerable ground.

    In an associated survey, Westpac's measure of unemployment expectations rose sharply. Consistent with the fall in employment Index in the Westpac-ACCI Survey this indicator also points to a substantial slowdown in employment growth (see chart next page).

    RBA to release Financial Stability Review on Thursday, March 27

    The RBA is expected to confirm the robust condition of Australian banks. However, we will be very interested in the outlook for the survival of mortgage securitisers; the capacity of overleveraged households to cope with the recent rate rises; and views on the extent and impact of likely credit rationing on the corporate sector.

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