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Thread: 为什么技术好也会输给技术差?

  1. #1
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    Default 为什么技术好也会输给技术差?

    自从有了杠杆之后,金融操作变得很奇妙,技术好不一定能赢技术差,正好诠释了风险与收益成正比。

    在外汇保证金操作中,使用25倍杠杆并不算高,以欧美为例,我在操作中经常能累计赢利1000点,累积一千点复利是多少,五百多点翻一番,刚好是400%。可是我很难控制连续亏损小于400点。亏损400点左右,刚好余下25%左右,就是本金。如果控制不好,连续亏损500点,那就爆仓了。

    也就是说,连续赢利1000点的效果刚好等于连续亏损400点。这样,即使你的赢面达到73%,输面只有27%,你也只能打平。

    不仅仅如果,即使你累积赢利2000点,3000点,5000点,只要你一个控制不好连续亏损五百点,一样是爆仓的结局。操作中最常见的是亏损面达到30%舍不得丢掉亏损,继续反向加仓,杠杆增大,很快爆仓。

    我自己没有在25倍杠杆下累计赢利2000点过,但我相信有这样的人,也就是说赢面达到了80%,仍然逃脱不过爆仓的结局。

    可是,如果把杠杆下降到5倍又是一个什么样的结局呢。累计赢利一千点,连续亏损400点,这样仍然能赢利600%,利润30%。在5倍杠杆下连续赢利二千点并不算太难,连续赢利2000点,连续亏损400,仍然能赚1600点,利润80%。这里是简化计算,没有考虑更复杂的情况,利润计算并不精确。同样的赢利水平,不同的杠杆,最后的结果天差地别。即使是连续赢利500点,而后连续亏损400点,仍然能赚100点,利润5%。

    也就是说,分别是25倍和5倍的杠杆,能连续赚一千点的人最终会输给只能连续赚500点的人。实际从技术层面来讲,能连续赚一千点比连续赚500点的人技术上高了n个档次。单仓双仓操作下,连续赢利点数每增加100点都极其困难。

    如果是使用50倍杠杆,100倍杠杆,那对赢面要求就更高了。而使用5倍以下杠杆,只要你赢面达到51%就可以赢利。

    低杠杆的最大好处就是,对你的技术要求很低,而高杠杆对技术要求很高。

    新手们这下应该可以明白了,为什么要低杠杆。2-5倍杠杆才是真实外汇世界的最佳杠杆。

  2. #2
    shaoyinwang
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    技术好差的标准应是实践,理论不能作为标准。

  3. #3
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    Default

    其实无论有没有杠杆,都应该遵循顺势,轻仓,止损的原则,这样才能久胜不衰

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