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Thread: My DAR forecast testing

  1. #1
    Market Maker ilearn2t's Avatar
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    Default My DAR forecast testing

    I see Monday as this week’s high once again.

    My reasons:

    Checking my data I found over a 10 week period: Monday has figured in 9 of them (5 high - 4 low) missing out on the 15/02/09.

    Friday is second best at 7 (4 high – 3 low)
    Wednesday 2 (0 high – 2 low)
    Thursday 2 (1 high – 1 low)

    The GBP/USD has continued to fall since 04/Nov/2007 (2.1161) on 18/Jan/2009 it hit a low (1.3503) its lowest level since 10/June/2001 (1.3670) If the downward trend continues this week could see it close to the 18/Jan/09 target again.
    At this early stage Wednesday could be the lowest point of the week before an upward trend towards Friday.


    Tuesday don’t appear high/low over the 10 week period but could play a big part in this forecast, if the trend drops below Mondays lowest point, this will take Mondays risk of this weeks low out of the equation

    At (00.01 GMT) I’ll place a sell order for 1.00 lot/volume 300 point stoploss. I will let this order run until Friday close or it hits the stoploss level first.

    Throughout the week I post my forecast for each day and use 0.10 (lot/volume) buy/sell orders to see the results.
    Throughout tomorrow 16/Mar/09 I'll use my own set of indicators and other data I've collected to try and get the best results possible all week.

    If any member/guest reading this is unsure how I worked this out please go to this thread and read all posts from #69 to #98 http://forum.fxopen.com/showthread.php?t=50754&page=5

    Please remember this is only a demo account and the above statement must not be taken as fact.

    Please feel free to post your own predictions about GBP/USD below.

    I will edit this post shortly after 00.01 GMT to include image of first 2 orders placed.

    Time posted 22.01 GMT 15/Mar/2009
    Open price: GBP/USD = 1.3960

    Open price 00.01 (GMT) 16/Mar/09 = 1.3959
    Attached Thumbnails Attached Thumbnails begin.jpg   OPEN.JPG  
    Last edited by ilearn2t; 03-15-2009 at 11:11 PM. Reason: Updating start of forecast

  2. #2
    Market Maker ilearn2t's Avatar
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    Default

    Forecast update:

    Mondays latest high = 1.4228 (10.38 GMT) low = 1.3943 (00.32 GMT)

    Tuesday could help decide if Monday will be the highest or lowest this week:

    Reasons:
    Largest pip difference in any given week between high - low = 613 avg = 332 (10 week period)
    Highest upward trend (1 week) after open price = 277 avg = 124 (10 week period)
    Lowest downward trend (1 week) after open price = 611 avg = 207 (10 week period)

    Data seems to favor a downward trend.

    Demo testing update:
    1.00 lot/volume = -$1,150 if forecast is right guaranteed a profit.
    0.10 lot/volume = -$113 if forecast is right guaranteed a profit.
    Profit once highest point found + indicator = $162.00 (0.10 lots/volumes)
    Current price = 1.4062

    Tuesdays open price = (to be updated tomorrow)

    Footnote: Not to smart first thing in the morning managed to place my first order (sell) on USD/CHF instead of (sell) order GBP/USD.
    Ill set this order to take profit at 0 so it wont affect my end results if this is not possible it will not count at the end.

    Time posted 10.46pm GMT Monday 16/Mar/09
    Attached Thumbnails Attached Thumbnails monday.jpg  

  3. #3
    Market Maker ilearn2t's Avatar
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    Default

    I'll use this post to edit and update images on progress.

    Mondays high 1.4647 low 1.4446

    11.00 GMT (UK. CBI Realized Sales) Previous -25 forecast -35: looking below -30 good for GBP/USD
    Result GBP/USD falls 50 points/pips in 30 minutes as CBI reports -44


    12.30 GMT (US. New Home Sales) Previous -2.5% forecast -2%: looking above -2.7% good for GBP/USD

    Report is due at (14.00 GMT)
    my mistake

    09.30 (GMT) GBP Retail Sales m/m previous 0.7% forecast -0.3% result -1.9%
    Bad for GBP/USD but not much movement



    Mondays open price = 1.4279
    Tuesdays open price = 1.4557
    Wednesdays open price = 1.4705
    Attached Thumbnails Attached Thumbnails closed_sell.JPG   opened_buy.JPG  
    Last edited by ilearn2t; 03-26-2009 at 10:20 AM. Reason: updating GBP report

  4. #4
    Market Maker ilearn2t's Avatar
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    Default

    Forecast updates:

    Tuesdays high = 1.4131 (05.23 GMT) latest low = 1.3962 (12.19 GMT) yet again no involvement in high/low.

    Wednesday:
    Will it be the highest or lowest this week so far?
    Look for a high USD/JPY (heading towards the 100s since 04/Nov/08) at open 00.00 GMT to start the downward trend for GBP/USD.

    Reasons:
    Needs over 160 points to hit highest
    Needs drop 100 points to hit highest

    Largest pip difference in any given week between high - low = 475 avg = 293 (10 week period)
    Highest upward trend (1 week) after open price = 371 avg = 147 (10 week period)
    Lowest downward trend (1 week) after open price = 355 avg = 145 (10 week period)

    Demo testing update:
    1.00 lot/volume = -$1,020 if forecast is right guaranteed a profit.
    0.10 lot/volume = -$100 if forecast is right guaranteed a profit.
    Others = -$139 if forecast is right guaranteed a profit.
    Profit once highest point found + indicator = $285 (0.10 lots/volumes)
    Current price = 1.4060

    Wednesdays open price = (to be updated tomorrow in post # 3)

    Please remember: because Im trying to give the closest updates to posting some mistakes/misprinting might happen.

    Time of post (23.49 GMT 17/Mar/2009)
    Attached Thumbnails Attached Thumbnails latest.jpg   minus.jpg  

  5. #5
    Market Maker ilearn2t's Avatar
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    Default

    Quote Originally Posted by ilearn2t View Post
    Forecast updates:

    Tuesdays high = 1.4131 (05.23 GMT) latest low = 1.3962 (12.19 GMT) yet again no involvement in high/low.

    Wednesday:
    Will it be the highest or lowest this week so far?
    Look for a high USD/JPY (heading towards the 100s since 04/Nov/08) at open 00.00 GMT to start the downward trend for GBP/USD.

    Reasons:
    Needs over 160 points to hit highest
    Needs drop 100 points to hit highest

    Largest pip difference in any given week between high - low = 475 avg = 293 (10 week period)
    Highest upward trend (1 week) after open price = 371 avg = 147 (10 week period)
    Lowest downward trend (1 week) after open price = 355 avg = 145 (10 week period)

    Demo testing update:
    1.00 lot/volume = -$1,020 if forecast is right guaranteed a profit.
    0.10 lot/volume = -$100 if forecast is right guaranteed a profit.
    Others = -$139 if forecast is right guaranteed a profit.
    Profit once highest point found + indicator = $285 (0.10 lots/volumes)
    Current price = 1.4060

    Wednesdays open price = (to be updated tomorrow in post # 3)

    Please remember: because Im trying to give the closest updates to posting some mistakes/misprinting might happen.

    Time of post (23.49 GMT 17/Mar/2009)
    First mistake spotted:
    Needs over 160 points to hit highest
    Needs drop 100 points to hit highest


    Bold red type above should be lowest not highest

  6. #6
    Market Maker ilearn2t's Avatar
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    Default

    Today was a day to remember:

    First Wednesday hits lowest point of the week 1.3848 (09.31 GMT)
    and by (19.15 GMT) breaks Mondays high 1.4288 (488 points in under 10 hours) before heading up to a new high of the week later on (1.4333)
    Now the trend looks set for a Friday high of the week.

    At this moment I've 1 sell order running once it closes, I'll change my sell orders to be replaced by buy orders until Friday night.

    I suspected an upward trend after Wednesdays low bottomed out and closed all orders in profit. (But never expected what happened next)

    Overall profit = $741.80 - $0.85 = $740.95

    Thursdays forecast.

    Expect downward movement before a swing upward setting up a chance for Fidays high.

    Reasons:

    Largest pip difference in any given week between high - low = 393 avg = 263 (10 week period)
    Highest upward trend (1 week) after open price = 306 avg = 152 (10 week period)
    Lowest downward trend (1 week) after open price = 209 avg = 110 (10 week period)

    Thursdays open price to be added tomorrow.
    Attached Thumbnails Attached Thumbnails finish.JPG  
    Last edited by ilearn2t; 05-27-2009 at 08:08 PM.

  7. #7
    Market Maker ilearn2t's Avatar
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    Default

    Fridays forecast.

    Expect this weeks highest point. 1.4620 + current price 1.4490
    Reasons:

    Because of the better than expected CPI report from USA I expect it to carry on into tomorrow.


    Highest upward trend (1 week) after open price = 229 avg = 169 (10 week period)
    Lowest downward trend (1 week) after open price = 370 avg = 119 (10 week period)

    Fridays open price to be added tomorrow.

    Time posted 23.23 GMT

  8. #8
    Market Maker ilearn2t's Avatar
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    Results of last weeks forecast:

    Monday to Wednesday went as predicted. (Monday= high Wednesday = Low)

    Tuesday played no part as predicted.

    Wednesday the USA cpi report resulted in a higher than predicted level causing the GBP/USD to rise by 485 points/pips from lowest point to beat Mondays high by just 45 points.

    Thursday started as predicted open = 1.4279 dropping to 1.4176 (06.00 GMT) before rising (highest point of the week) = 1.4598 (15.00 GMT) before dropping again to close at = 1.4495.

    Friday missed my predicted high (1.4620) by 25 points/pips and Fridays high of the week by 3 points/pips.

  9. #9
    Market Maker ilearn2t's Avatar
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    This weeks forecast.

    Monday = Lowest
    Friday = Highest

    Monday:

    Monday should start in a downward trend, if the upward trend as not started by 14.00 (GMT) then a good report from the USA Existing Home Sales might be the turning point.

    Mar/2009 (Previous 4.49 - forecast 4.45 expected low: result ????)
    GBP/USD ??? points/pips.

    Feb/2009 (Previous 4.74 - forecast 4.78 expected high: result 4.49 down)
    GBP/USD -142 points/pips.

    Jan/2009 (Previous 4.45 - forecast 4.40 expected low: result 4.74 up)
    GBP/USD +22 points/pips.


    Test will start 23/Mar/09 00.01 (GMT) with a 1.00 lot/volume order with 0.10 sell orders using indicator as back up.
    If my forecast is right all buy orders will consist of 1.00 lots/volumes from Monday.

    Tuesday:

    Depending on Mondays close price, Tuesday could play a big roll in this weeks forecast.

    Looking for a big swing upwards between 08.00 to 17.00 GMT.

    Time posted 21.53 (GMT)

    Mondays open price to be added later (see post #3)

  10. #10
    Market Maker ilearn2t's Avatar
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    Default

    Tuesday:

    Depending on Mondays close price, Tuesday could play a big roll in this weeks forecast.

    Looking for a big swing upwards between 08.00 17.00 GMT.

    The UK cpi will be released at 09.30 (GMT), with annual inflation expected at 2.7% compared to 3% last month this could help boost the pound.

    Reason behind forecast:
    If inflation is low imported goods will become much cheaper in the UK, while at the same time causing UK goods to be more expensive, caused by a high pound.

    Tuesdays open price to follow (see page #3)

    Mondays updated high = 1.4647 low = 1.4446 current price = 1.4570

    Time posted 23.20(GMT)

    Test profits $2,029 (see image)
    Attached Thumbnails Attached Thumbnails lastest.jpg  

  11. #11
    Market Maker ilearn2t's Avatar
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    Default

    Wednesday:

    Expect an up/down trend before main rise (10.00 GMT)

    2 news reports to watch:

    11.00 GMT (UK. CBI Realized Sales) Previous -25 forecast -35: looking below -30 good for GBP/USD
    12.30 GMT (US. New Home Sales) Previous -2.5% forecast -2%: looking above -2.7% good for GBP/USD


    Monday low = 1.4446
    Tuesday new high = 1.4779
    Wednesdays open price = (updated on page #3 later)

    Expecting price 1.4930 - 1.5000 before Fridays close. Current price = 1.4690

    Time posted 23.46 (GMT)

    See page #3 for updates

    Latest testing results (profit $5,509.80)

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    This method is working

  13. #13
    Market Maker ilearn2t's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by galvar View Post
    This method is working
    Hello galvar

    Your idea

    CORRECTION:

    12.30 GMT (US. New Home Sales) Previous -2.5% forecast -2%: looking above -2.7% good for GBP/USD

    Should have read Core Durable Goods Orders m/m Previous was revised to -5.9% after my posting
    but the result 3.9% was good for the GBP/USD +35 Points/pips in 30 minutes

    Test profits +$6,079.80

  14. #14
    Market Maker ilearn2t's Avatar
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    GBP/USD profits from good US New Home Sales report previous 309K forecast 302K result 337K sorry don't have the time to post all news.

    test profits +$8,129.80

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    Quote Originally Posted by ilearn2t View Post

    test profits +$8,129.80

    Great results send me the formula and i will program a custom indicator to make it easier

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