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Thread: 避险光环持续发亮 美元下周或将继续上扬

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    Post 避险光环持续发亮 美元下周或将继续上扬

    分析师表示,鉴于避险买盘的推动,美元预计将延续今年以来的强劲走势,在未来一周内继续上扬。

      尽管美元即将以下跌结束本周走势,但分析师预计,受投资者的风险厌恶情绪支撑,美元将恢复其内在强势。

      美国劳工部周五公布,美国2月非农就业人口减少65.1万人,预估为减少64.8万人,2月失业率升至8.1%,为1983年12月以来最高水平,高于此前市场预期的7.9%,1月修正后失业率为7.6%,与初值相同。


      分析师指出,由于市场此前预计就业数据糟糕,美元在数据公布之前就已下跌,但美国疲软的经济前景基本已被消化,而投资者将把注意力重新转向未来。

      加拿大皇家银行资本市场部(RBC Capital Markets)驻多伦多高级外汇策略师Matthew Strauss称:"避险情绪依然将占据主导地位,流入美元的避险买盘也将源源不断。"

      自次贷危机爆发并向其它资产及全球实体经济渗透以来,风险一直就是全球金融市场的主题。

      而随着美国政府大刀阔斧、相对迅速的实施经济刺激措施,其它主要国家政府却采取观望态度,投资者于是普遍认为美国将成为率先复苏的发达经济体。

      欧洲央行(ECB)周四宣布降息50个基点,至1.5%,创下纪录新低。欧洲央行行长特里谢(Jean-Claude Trichet)利率会议后举行的新闻发布会上称,欧元区通胀压力有所缓解,而经济在2009年可能将持续低迷。

      同样在周四,英国央行(BOE)亦降息50个基点,至0.5%,创下历史新低。

      与这两家央行形成对比的是,美联储在去年12月就已将利率下调至0-0.25%的区间,而投资者为了安全起见,也愿意持有美元而不计较其微小的回报率。最新的美国10年期国债收益率约为2.8%。

      LPB Capital LLC首席投资官Andrew Bekoff表示:"受益于欧洲央行与英国央行的降息,美元的强劲买盘仍将持续;激进的货币政策和不断恶化的全球经济正将那些厌恶风险的资金推向美元。"

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    世界需要一种流通货币 通用的 就是一个交换的凭证 方便

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    美元还会东山再起的,现在的利率已尽不能再低了,可以说到底了,经济一旦好转又会开始涨的

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