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Thread: 日元为何强劲?

  1. #1
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    Default 日元为何强劲?

    想象有这样一个国家:其经济萎缩的速度两倍于其它富国;其首相的民意支持率低于10%;其财相在上周末七国集团(G7)罗马会议上发言时讲话不清。你会买入该国货币吗?

      不错,这个国家就是日本。该国经济在截至去年12月的三个月内萎缩3.3%。这意味着年度化的萎缩率达到将近13%,而且这并非一个季度的数据偏差。在日本国内,大量裁员继续压抑着国内需求。在国外,对日本出口的需求严重下滑。同时,外国人正在抛售日本股票。整体而言,日本去年的净资本流出达到20年来最高位。据摩根大通(JPMorgan)估算,有大约1600亿美元撤出该国(对直接投资加上净投资组合流动,再减去日本趋向恶化的贸易盈余)。

      即便如此,日元汇率仍未受打击。自2007年底以来,日元兑美元汇率已上升逾20%。这一升幅有相当大一部分是在日元套利交易大量解除后发生的,尽管在全球信贷紧缺之际,一个庞大的债权国拥有强劲汇率也是符合逻辑的。遭遇困难的家庭和企业更有可能撤回海外投资。的确,近月来日本投资者是外国债券的净出售方,而且他们还有大量可供变现的资产;据估算,日本私人部门持有1.7万亿美元的净海外资产。下个月是财政年度的年底,传统上这是一个补仓和从海外撤回资金的时候。明年的撤资规模,可能由于针对企业从海外汇回利润的税收特赦而进一步加大。简言之,日元的强劲可能会持续相当长一段时间。这是买入日元,同时抛售日本资产的又一个理由。



    摘自:和讯外汇频道

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    Default

    日本迟早要灭亡

  3. #3
    shaoyinwang
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    一个帖子讲,日本的主妇都来炒日元了,能不长吗?

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