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Thread: 把握突破时机:成交量与k线相结合操盘

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    Default 把握突破时机:成交量与k线相结合操盘

    把握突破时机:成交量与k线相结合操盘
      当一个个股满足了时间、空间、能量条件时,表明市场已经处于一种微妙的平衡状态,而k线图能为我们指出这种平衡倾向于多空双方中的哪一方,点明突破方向。一只大牛股在其诞生之初,其各方面的走势必定是完美的。而未能成为大牛股的个股在走势形态上却各有各的缺陷。从多个侧面考察个股的走势,相对而言,由于k线具有的与生俱来的对市场高度敏感的特点,使其具有较高的实际操作指导价值。应用k线图可以帮助我们判断股价突破的短线时机。与市场中投资者不同的是,在此我们仍对个股突破前的走势运用周k线图加以考察,结果如下表。
      对该表的考察使我们得到一个有趣的结果,对近几年大牛股的统计表明,个股在突破平台整理前,近二周k线常常出现二阳夹一阴、大阳线、早晨之星等形态,出现的频率之高,出现的形态之集中,与变化莫测的日线图形成巨大反差。这也从一个侧面使我们把k线图简单化,只要掌握这几种常用k线,就可以较大地提高投资成功的几率,使我们可以在较短的时间内获得较大的收益。
      同时,以上k线组合发生在盘整区域的相对位置也对股价突破与否具有先行指示意义。事实上,这也是对盘整区域高位放量突破的补充。一般,一只个股在上升之前的盘整区,就已露出突破的端倪。但在突破之前的微妙状态下,这种信号又难以为市场所察觉。据大量的图表观察,事实上,当k线组合发生在盘整区域的中位线以上、箱体之内时,k线组合就已提前指出市场的方向,这与放量位置距离箱体顶部距离可相互参考,互为印证。股价可以骗人,而成交量却难以骗人,没有成交量支持的股价运动是空虚的价格运动,而成交量放大、股价却不大涨的个股,则只能是主力的压价吸货行为。k线图与成交量的结合使我们对量价配合良好有了更深层次的理解。
      

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    总结以上的分析,我们可以作出一个数学模型,以描述黑马诞生的时空、能量、价格之间的特征关系。
      第一,个股近一年涨幅不大,最好在60%以内。
      第二,近半年波动幅度在30%以内,对比大盘的波动幅度,在大盘波幅的70%以内,波幅越小,突破的力度越大。
      第三,突破时,股价距离箱体顶部较近。
       第四,突破前的箱体盘整中,有周k线配合。
      第五,成交量的配合有助于提高突破的准确性。对一段时间的成交量用累积换手率计算有利于掌握入市时机

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