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Thread: 美元/日元突破100日均线,苏格兰皇家银行建议逢高空美

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    Post 美元/日元突破100日均线,苏格兰皇家银行建议逢高空美

    美国周四公布的经济数据好坏参半,1月谘商会领先指标上升0.4%,但2月费城联储制造业指数为-41.3,远低于预期的-25.0。这表明美国制造业持续萎缩,加重了市场对美国经济前景的担忧。

      美股周四震荡下行,这提高了风险厌恶情绪,推动避险资金继续涌入美元。道指盘中一度下跌90点左右,逼近了前期趋势低点7450点。同时,市场对日本政府可能入市干预日元升值担忧,也是近期持续推高美元的因素之一。


      美元/日元纽约时段开于93.57附近,早盘受美元避险买盘推动,汇价突破了94.00整数关口,并触发其上方止损,上扬至时段新高94.42。午盘,受短线获利盘打压,汇价自该高点小幅回落。之后,汇价回撤至94.00整数水平企稳回升。尾盘,汇价进一步小幅走高,创下6周新高94.46,但受94.60 上方卖盘打压,汇价未能扩大升势。临收盘时,汇价基本围绕94.30一线强势整理,并直至收盘。

      美元/日元周四开于93.80,日内高见94.46,低见93.30,振幅达116点,最终收于94.43,较周三收盘价上涨62点,涨幅0.67%。

      有分析师指出,日线图显示,美元/日元周四拉出下影中阳,自08年9月份以来首次突破了100日均线,表明中期走势逐步好转。目前短线关键阻力在 94.60,若有效突破,将宣告双底(87.12和87.13)型态成立,多头目标将指向101.00。后市汇价上方阻力见于94.60和95.00,下方支撑则位于93.95和93.30。

      苏格兰皇家银行(rbs)周四表示,美元/日元或朝95.00方向反弹,但是建议采取逢高做空的策略。该行解释,随着日本央行降息至接近0%,日元与其他货币的息差空间缩窄,导致套息交易再度活跃的可能性下降,加之风险偏好情绪仍处于低位,因此,建议逢高做空美元/日元。

      周五将公布日本12月所有产业活动指数和美国1月消费者物价指数,预计将会对汇价走势提供一定指引。

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    美元兑日元还将继续走高的,毕竟日元升值对日本没啥好处。。。

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