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Thread: 别掉进常用指标的陷阱

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    Post 别掉进常用指标的陷阱

    说起技术分析,投资者最熟悉的莫过于kdj、macd、rsi等常见的技术指标了。许多初级股市技术教课书甚至把这些指标列入首要内容来重点讲解,甚至连证券从业资格考试也离不开这些内容。而事实上,这些指标对于普通投资者来说,虽然也能起到一些有益的参考作用,但它们的作用显然被过分夸大了,经过大量实战对照研究,我们甚至可以说,这些系统指标发出的50%以上的信号都是错误的,这对我们的实战参考价值还不如掷硬币来得高。

      当然,这些技术指标使用方便,判断直观,简单地观察金叉或者死叉似乎就能得到今后涨跌的信息,正因为此,才深受广大散户的喜爱,不过这里想请迷信此类指标的读者朋友思考几点:

      其一,这些指标发出的买入卖出信号几乎所有市场参与者都能看到,那么照此操作是否人人都能够满载而归呢?常识告诉我们这是绝对不可能的。

      其二,这些指标本身来源于一段时间内的股价数据计算,但是许多个股价格走势变化很难保证不受人为左右,也就等于这些指标也能轻易地被操纵,反而可能成为一种欺骗手段。

      其三,有人认为可以利用不同技术指标相结合来判断(比如同时看kdj、rsi以及其他指标),可以避免出现偏差,其实这更是明显的思维误区。因为对操作的判断结论一定只有两种,或对或错,成功失败各占50%,就像扔硬币一样,当你对扔一次硬币出现的结果不放心,那么连扔3下甚至同时扔10个硬币又能让成功率提高多少呢?

      在市场中,惟有k线走势和成交量是最忠实和值得信赖的,哪怕是主力做的一点点手脚都会在k线图中暴露无遗。量、价、时、空这四大要素也都写在k线上,这也是为什么很多流传百年的经典投资理论如埃略特的波浪理论、江恩系列都是源于最原始的k线图而后发展得来的。从这个角度,我们希望投资者能抛弃从前对这些技术指标的过分依赖,学会用真正的市场语言--k线来掌握股价变化的秘密。

  2. #2
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    kdj rsi都有缺陷 超买超卖就失衡了

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    macd是不错的趋势指标。

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    要是看趋势的话,用macd还可以,其他的也没什么用处了

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    还是k线好,是本质

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