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Thread: 技术理论不一定靠谱!

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    Default 技术理论不一定靠谱!

    喜欢理论研究的人,经常会有一种感觉,觉得行情走势总是很清晰,好象一切都在意料之中似的,尤其是面对历史行情,不管什么指标公式似乎都对,更不要说趋势理论和波浪理论了,那是相当的精确了。其实这是一种幻觉,因为面对未来行情,不管用何种理论套用,成功率绝不会超过50%,这就是真相,那些精致的理论事实上不会比随机扔硬币赌正反面更高明。认清这一点会让我们很难过,但很重要,这直接决定了你会采用何种交易思维、交易哲学,没有正确的思维,投机的失败只是时间问题。这里最有意思的要数波浪理论,以我的观察,就预测而言,没有比波浪理论更强大的方法了,但我见过无数波浪理论高手的滑铁卢般的惨败,败在太过理想的预测中,败在过分的心理膨胀和目空一切,一开始就注定了失败,因为它违背了实战投机的正确思维,那么,实战需要什么样的思维呢?



    我通过各种技法阐述顺势而为的理念,我深深觉得这个方法最好,能在市场上长期持久稳定地获利。在方向的判断上,真的没有高手低手,职业业余,专家散户之分,重要的是操作了吗?如何操作?做行情就是这样,有时需要坚持,有时需要改变看法,这是生存之道。解决了方向问题后,接下来的就是,在那里放空,放多少的问题了,如果放空了,在那里会止损呢?到那里会先获利了结呢?趋势是复杂的,其中会反复无常,你想赚到那种级别的钱呢?这些是我们实战中每天都会问自己的问题吧,如何尽量避开主观臆想,使每一步操作都有理有据呢?看多看空不重要,行情变化时的反应才最重要。

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    可是如果遇到盘整的局面
    或不断的假突破的出现
    资金就会慢慢的变少

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    Quote Originally Posted by hykpro View Post
    交易系统要越做越细腻,简单的5日和10交叉也可以赚钱,但不是长久之计,要做的好,方法也不会很复杂
    所谓的越是简单的越是有效的
    说的就是这样的道理吧

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