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Thread: 瑞郎或代替欧元成领涨货币?

  1. #1
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    Default 瑞郎或代替欧元成领涨货币?

    进入12月份以来,随着美元指数结束高位三顶走势,开始跌破关键支撑,以及美国汽车救助计划的搁浅,美元遭遇重创,12月份以来美元指数跌幅高达13%左右。

    周二美联储降息超预期,并宣布实施量化货币政策,此举令美元遭遇抛压,非美货币巩固近来涨势。其中欧元和瑞郎兑美元涨势更为抢眼,12月份涨幅均在15%左右。

    但瑞郎涨势好像更为迅猛,12月份欧元兑瑞郎涨幅微小,但这是在本周汇价削减涨幅的基础上形成的,此前欧元兑瑞郎上扬达5%左右。本周瑞郎涨势凌厉,人们不禁要问瑞郎能否代替欧元领涨非美货币?

    美元指数表现疲软



    近期受美参议院否决汽车救助方案,特别是美联储超预期降息决定和量化货币政策出台的影响,美元指数扩大近日汹涌跌幅,最低下探77.73点。美元基本面的疲软仍旧主导着市场情绪,然而现在由于美元指数运行于75.89-80.38之间,预计近期美元指数将在77.86处受支撑,此位为71.31-88.46的0.618费波纳契回撤位。

    美元指数上行趋势是否已经结束还未可知,但是近期若出现显著的反弹应当被看作是超卖的信号。决定美元指数前景的关键因素是看,美元指数自88.46的高位下跌后是否出现另一下跌趋势,以便确认美元指数走势进入5浪的下跌3浪,或者3浪跌势彻底完成后矫正美指走势,反弹上扬。这在未来几周内将加以确认,从而决定09年的走势。

    近期欧元涨势凌厉



    欧元仍旧是近来美元挫败的最大受益者之一,迄今欧元兑美元以上扬至1.4718的高位。由于近来上扬趋势加剧冲击由0.7808-0.8660自0.8234的1.618回撤位,欧元兑英镑继续刷新历史最高记录。欧元兑加元已经上破1.70的技术阻力位,后市或将继续上扬至下一阻力位1.7753,该位为由1.3282-1.6322自1.4716的1.0回撤位。总之,欧元兑各主要货币普遍看涨。

    一个重要的交易员们可能忽略的变化是瑞郎的强劲持续走强。事实上,瑞郎是本月表现最好的货币,甚至超过了欧元。英镑兑瑞郎已经跌破重要支撑位1.7537,迄今已下破1.6557。本周欧元兑瑞郎跌势迅猛,汇价正好触及1.6827-1.4315的0.618回撤位1.5866和55周均线1.5848后,迅猛下跌。警惕汇价自1.4315反弹可能在1.5880附近完成,汇价在跌破1.5163支撑后将加大这种判断的信心。也就是说,即使欧元继续走强,瑞郎可能也将渐渐代替欧元领涨非美货币的地位。

    瑞郎或领涨非美货币



    周四美元兑瑞郎进一步扩大跌幅,最低报1.0637,盘中跌破关键支撑1.0693,触及关键支撑区域1.0623/51(0.9634-1.2296的0.618回撤位)。尽管如此,只要汇价运行于1.0905之下,日内趋势仍旧倾向看跌。在汇价自关键支撑区域反弹后,突破1.0905后市将进一步打开上扬通道。假如这样的话,后市将扩大涨幅,测试1.1246阻力位。

    从历史上看,自0.9634的低点反弹上扬至1.2296后,汇价已经形成双顶。现在判断美元兑瑞郎已经进入了新一轮的熊市还为时过早,汇价在触及关键支撑区域1.0623/51(0.9634-1.2296的0.618回撤位)后最好等待观望后市进一步的走势以确定后期支撑阻力。然而汇价只要运行于1.1246以下,中期就有继续下行的风险。

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    近期欧元涨势凌厉

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