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Thread: Dollar Double Hit by NFP and ISM Services

  1. #1
    Join Date
    Jul 2007
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    Default Dollar Double Hit by NFP and ISM Services


    Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.3667; (P) 1.3685; (R1) 1.3721; More

    EUR/USD's rebound from 1.3609 resumes by breaking through 1.376 resistance, reaching as high as 1.3751 so far. At this point, further rally should follow as long as 1.3682 support holds and retest of 1.3769 resistance should be seen. Also, break of 1.3769 will confirm that correction from 1.3851 has completed, after drawing support from mentioned support zone of 1.3567 to 1.3658. In such case, retest of 1.3851 high should be seen. However, a drop below 1.3682 will indicate that correction from 1.3851 is still in progress for another test of 1.3567/3658 zone before completion.

    In the bigger picture, firstly, the momentum of the rise from 1.3262 is seen stronger than the prior rally from 1.2865 to 1.3681. Secondly, the falling trend line in both daily MACD and RSI were broken, negating the bearish divergence conditions. In other words, the underlying bullishness in EUR/USD could be stronger than we originally thought and the rise from 1.3262 could be part of another set of medium term rally instead of the last advance of a 5 wave rally from 1.2483 that we originally thought.

    Focus remains on 1.3822 resistance. Sustained trading above this level will add much weight to the case that whole medium term rally from 1.1639 is indeed resumption of multi-year up trend from 0.8223 (00 low). That is, further rise should be seen in medium term towards 95 high of 1.4523 with much chance to extend further to 61.8% projection of 0.8223 to 1.3668 from 1.1639 at 1.5004.

    On the downside, break of 1.3481 will warn that 1.3851 is indeed an important medium term top. 1.3262 low will be back into focus and break will indicate that medium term rally from 1.1639 has likely completed after being limited by 1.3822 resistance as original scenario.

  2. #2
    In Profit acidguy's Avatar
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    Aug 2007
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    interesting new but this is the bigger picture. it could even pass years before we see something like that.

    and by the way, usd trend is gonna keep going up even if the predictions tells about the contrary, america is already in a covert recession.
    do you think the big trade deficit, subprime, house end bubble, inflation pressures, doesnt have a weight on america?

    anyway, why do you think they want to attack iran now? they expect to reverse the fall of the dollar and give it some boost.
    Mr.Bush is crazy, he is dooming america... bad for them.

  3. #3
    Moderator cool user Resolve's Avatar
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    Mar 2012
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    This topic is being updated for further discussions...



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