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Thread: 英镑创出趋势新低

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    Lightbulb 英镑创出趋势新低

    尽管上周大部分主要货币对陷入整理,但受基本面因素打压,英镑创出了新低。考虑到英国的经济增长以及利率前景,英镑短期风险继续不容乐观。在两周前英国央行意外减息150个基点以前上周英央行发表温和的季度通胀报告后,英央行继续大幅减息已是板上钉钉,英镑很可能由传统的高收益货币迅速沦为低收益货币。英央行长金恩已经放出话称,他不排除会把利率下调至零。但从瑞士信贷隔夜利率期货来看,英央行未来12个月只有100点的减息空间,这表明随着情况的恶化,市场预期与英央行的实际行动之间会存在很大的差异,这可能会导致英镑大幅波动。周三英央行将公布上次会议的会议记录,可能为进一步减息空间提供线索。如果所有MPC成员支持减息150个基点,很显然未来还有可能大幅减息。经济数据也是英央行在利率决议时需要考虑的因素,如果10月通胀比预期更快的下降,央行大幅减息的空间也会增大。房屋,工业趋势,消费者支出数据则有可能确认英国经济自1992年以来首次陷入了衰退。技术上,英镑/美元日图及周图均未有筑底的迹象,汇价下一目标仍在1.3680。

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    难怪这几天镑日在盘整多日后忽然上串下跳的了

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