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Thread: 技术分析与现实的关系

  1. #1
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    Default 技术分析与现实的关系

    技术分析,分析的是价格,但价格是现实的反映,做技术分析,其实也是在分析现实。这话听起来停拗口的,就像巴菲特认为买股票是经营公司一样,我们做技术分析其实也是在透析这个世界。

    我不知道朋友们是怎样看待价格的,对我而言,根本无须去关心这个世界发生了什么,只需要用心去感受价格就足够了,价格会告诉你这个世界发生了什么。

    价格是现实的反映,而且是最敏感的反映,价格会告诉你发生了什么,而且,用心的话,价格还会告诉你将来可能发生什么,机会有多大。


    技术分析与概率:

    任何事情,唯一能确定的,就是都具有不确定性。因此,我们基本上是处在一个概率场当中,每件事情的背后都贴有一张标签:发生的概率为??%

    基本面分析也好,技术分析也好,盘感也好,实地考察也罢。说到底,也就不过让我们的概率增加几个百分点而已,但用好这几个百分点就能成为赢家。

    能力越好,对于事情,能确定的东西会多一些。


    技术分析与资金管理:

    资金管理是一个很重要的工具,同过资金管理,能将概率变成现金,同时,能避免自己破产。

    在概率上,无论多小的概率,在现实中就肯定会发生的。如果每次下全部的筹码,哪怕输的可能只有0.00001%,也会一文不剩。

    当我们通过各种方法,在概率上得到比别人多那么一点的优势的时候,必须通过资金管理,在风险可控的情况下变现。

    资金管理的核心是,无论你有100美元,还是1000000美元,承受的风险总是不变的,哪怕是从100美元赚过来的,因为资金管理只在乎百分比,而不在乎数量。

    所以,对市场,永远要心存敬畏,如履薄冰才是正确的态度。

  2. #2
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    Default

    是啊,无论资金大小,都要对这个市场心存敬畏

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