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Thread: 预测与操作,孰轻孰重?

  1. #1
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    Wink 预测与操作,孰轻孰重?

    为什么在金融投机中亏损者众,盈利者少?因为我们大多数人会不自觉地陷入各种各样的思维误区而无从自拔,于是不得不用金钱支付错误的代价。

    金融投机离不开预测和操作两个基本环节。这两个环节之间的关系是什么?作为一个职业投资者,如何摆布预测和操作之间的关系才是正确的?我们的思维误区在哪里?

    诚然我们都清楚预测是操作的基础,离开合理预测的投机操作是盲目和危险的,因此把预测摆在比操作更重要的位置上似乎是合情合理的;但是我们忽略了一个基本事实:投机所追求的根本目标盈利,来自于操作,而不是预测,所有正确或错误的预测,必须通过操作环节才能转化成盈利或亏损,因此尽管预测是投机的起点,但经由此起点并不能直接到达投机者希望到达的终点。这正是我们大多数投资者的思维误区,重视了起点,忽视了路径,重视了起点,忽视了过程,重视了起点,忽视了起点和终点间的关系。

    在这种错误的投机思维主导之下,投资者往往沾沾自喜于一次准确预测,耿耿于怀于一次预测失误,但是亏大赢小的局面未见改观;往往投入大量的时间精力孜孜不倦于预测的方法和技巧,而对操作的技巧和方法则分身乏术,于是认真分析于前,草率操作于后,执迷不悟于终;往往耽于罗列、搜求和解读市场涨跌的种种前因后果,而对真正有价值的投资理念、操作原则、纪律视若无睹,缘木求鱼而不自知。

    正确的思维则是重操作轻预测。对市场的预测正确与否不是最重要的,最重要的是我们的操作是否正确地遵守了既定的规则;极端地讲,预测正确而操作错误即便结果盈利也是危险而不可取的模式,预测错误而操作正确即便结果亏损也是有价值而必须坚持的模式。

    预测是人类的一个嗜好,而且是一个危险的嗜好。预测者好比一个玩火的孩子,往往面对自己制造的熊熊大火惊慌失措。对于不能恰当地处理预测的后续事务的投资者,每一次预测都是危险的。重预测轻操作的投资者,往往成为自己预测的牺牲品。放弃对预测的执着,着力于操作的投资者,才能成为自己的主宰。
    不汇就学海军

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    其实还是要预测的
    没有预测心理没底
    怎么操作?

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    Default

    不预则不立,预测了不操作也是说白话,两个都重要

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