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Thread: 外汇交易的双刃剑

  1. #1
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    Default 外汇交易的双刃剑

     1、货币市场正在反应全球金融危机的新动向


      近期金融市场出现的一系列情况如果放在一起,我们不难再次领略开放经济体在面临金融危机时的巨大波动性,资金回流美国引起各国股市暴跌,同时美元走强,日元套息交易在这个过程中继续遭到大幅平仓,因此也引起了日元对美元的走强。现时,美元货币已由前期的5%的利率下降到了1.5%,加入了低息货币的行列,所以我们不难发现现在走强的都是低息货币,这表明投资者正避开高息货币的风险对低息货币的空头仓位加以平仓。


      2、衰退经济学的应用有待进一步完善


      以往每次经济衰退的过程都来得较为缓慢,中间还略有反复,油价和金价经过反复震荡还会创出新高,不过次贷危机引发的衰退过程较前几次都较为猛烈,和以前最不同的是,这次的危机首先爆发在金融领域,而前几次的危机背景下金融市场并没有这么发达,危机是从实体经济的衰退中开始的,比如上个世纪70年代的石油危机。所以我们一方面在应用长波理论的同时,也在不断地通过观察来修正该理论在实际中的应用,但总体来看,关于衰退的经济学理论依然值得学习。


      3、中国经济成为世界经济引擎还有待时日


      中国的内需并不像想象中那么乐观,之前受益于中国经济高速成长的海外公司近来发现中国经济离世界经济引擎的地位还有距离。以市场汇率计算的中国经济仅占世界经济的6%,即使是按许多经济学家所锺爱的购买力平价指标衡量,中国经济在全球经济中所占比重也只有10%左右,这其中制造占了绝大部分,而消费所占比重稍小,加之中国经济的调整周期与世界经济正好同步,因此需求下降也是在所难免。


      4、控制外汇风险是中国公司出海的必修课


      外汇市场是一个非常易于赚钱也非常易于亏钱的市场,如果控制不好头寸或者不能及时止损止盈,将会遭受重大损失。上市公司并不是专门的投资公司,因此控制风险的能力较一般的投资公司而言较弱,如果持有较多的外汇头寸不管是衍生品还是基础货币,都容易面临短时间内较大的浮亏,因此我们建议在投资者调研上市公司的时候,要注意出口企业或者有海外业务的企业有没有在外汇上实行一定的预防风险的措施。

  2. #2
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    Default

    此评论与炒外汇无关,弄点实际的

  3. #3
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    Default

    Quote Originally Posted by dqrs View Post
    此评论与炒外汇无关,弄点实际的
    跟外汇倒是有点关系,但是跟标题是没什么关系的,什么是双刃剑,楼主根本没讲嘛

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