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Thread: 欧元兑美元27日有望震荡整理或震荡盘跌测试支撑

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    Piplet
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    Default 欧元兑美元27日有望震荡整理或震荡盘跌测试支撑

    2008-10-27 10:26:38



    欧元兑美元24日震荡盘跌。社科院赵燕京认为,汇价27日有望震荡整理或震荡盘跌测试支撑。强压力1.2840,弱压力1.2730;强支撑1.2400,弱支撑1.2510。

    中国社会科学院经济学博士赵燕京10月27日指出,欧元兑美元24日震荡盘跌。汇价日高1.3002,日低1.2497,尾盘在1.2620附近整理;日升跌率-2.413%,日涨跌幅-0.031,收于1.2619。上周汇价的周最高价1.3529,周最低价1.2497,周升跌率-5.892%。

    技术指标显示,汇价的短期日均线系统呈空头排列态势,汇价位于其下及30日均线(1.3780)之下,显示短中线向空,短线向空。汇价若受压于1.2730、1.2840之下则短线向空,上挡压力位于1.3190,下挡支撑位于1.2510、1.2400;1.2840与1.3530(中位1.3190)分别为汇价短线向空与向多的分界线。

    周技术指标显示,汇价的短期周均线系统呈死叉空头排列态势,汇价位于其下及30周均线(1.4963)之下,显示中线向空的概率增大;汇价若站稳于1.4590之上则周线向多,若站稳于1.3910之上则周线偏多,下破1.3240则周线向空,下挡周线支撑位于1.2050;1.4590与1.3240(中位1.3910)分别为汇价周线向多与向空的分界线。

    汇价现概略位于中长线向空的概率增大、但不排除在宽幅震荡中寻求中长线运行方向的可能;中线向空的概率增大;短中线向空;短线向空;周线若站稳于1.4590之上则周线向多,若站稳于1.3910之上则周线偏多,下破1.3240则周线向空;日线若站稳于1.3530之上则短线向多,若站稳于1.3190之上则短线偏多,若下破1.2840则短线向空,有望震荡整理或震荡盘跌测试支撑的位置。

    波动分析显示,长线看,暂认定汇价自波段低点、2001年7月月低0.8334至今(此计算和美元指数的波计数较为一致)运行在5波震升波动末段的概率依然存在(此概率继续减小);汇价已经在波段高点、4月22日日高1.6017及7月15日日高1.6035构筑双顶、结束长期震升波动的概率继续增大,即进入中长期调整中的概率增大,且不排除由此进入长期调整的可能。

    短线波动分析显示,暂谨慎认定汇价已经自波段高点、7月15日日高1.6035进入中级调整中,其双顶形态成立。现汇价或许仍运行在具有延伸波结构的5波(或5波3)下跌中,已经在9月22日日高1.4864结束4波反弹进入5波持续震跌中的概率增大。分时图看,现汇价运行至下跌波段末段的概率继续增大,且已经在1.2497附近见波段低点进入短线反弹或由此进入较大级别反弹的概率存在(反弹约5-6个交易日,目标或看向1.3400-1.3600)。市场对汇价持续下探支撑或下探支撑后进入短线反弹或由此进入较大级别反弹的多种可能性保持警惕。

    本周,汇价有望震荡整理或震荡盘跌。

    27日,汇价有望震荡整理或震荡盘跌测试支撑。

    27日强压力1.2840,弱压力1.2730;强支撑1.2400,弱支撑1.2510。

    (特别声明:以上内容仅供参考,风险自负)

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    Piplet poliuce's Avatar
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    Thumbs up 点位分析很到位

    点位fenxi很到位,打的很准,应该是压力和支撑的fenxi吧

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