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Thread: 巨资救市留后遗症 欧元难"翻身"

  1. #1
    Elder Analyst yes810's Avatar
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    Default 巨资救市留后遗症 欧元难翻身

    2008年10月16日 05:03 第一财经日报




      曹金玲

      尽管欧洲政府为救市场花了大价钱,但是不少外汇策略师和投资者仍然认为这些措施将无法阻止欧洲经济下滑的事实,从而对欧元的支撑也相当有限。

      欧元在周一周二的强劲上扬后,昨天出现震荡盘整。本周以来,欧元兑美元相比上周五纽约汇市收盘的1.3408最大涨幅约2%,而截至昨天记者发稿,欧元兑美元报1.3630,当天最高为1.3645,最低1.3535。欧元兑日元报138.59,比前日收盘的139.02微跌,当天出现较大震荡,最高139.37,最低136.95。

      欧元有所上涨主要因为周末以来欧洲的救市力度大于美国,欧元上涨是个好现象,至少说明市场避险情绪正因政府的大力援助有所减少。宏源证券首席经济学家房四海接受《第一财经日报》采访时表示,然而,这只是欧元的短暂翻身。由于欧洲动用巨额救市,这笔账仍会留下后遗症,拖累该地区经济增长。

      根据摩根士丹利的最新预计,欧元兑美元汇率将在2009年年底前到达1.25美元,法国巴黎银行也认为,即使欧元在短期内得到些许支持,但仍会继续下跌。

      摩根士丹利全球外汇研究主管Stephen Jen则在近日公开表示,目前欧元仍存在过度买入、过多持有、过高利率、过高估值的问题。在Stephen Jen看来,未来全球性的经济放缓将让欧元难逃被大量抛售的命运。

      从去年12月到今年7月,欧元兑美元累计上涨38%;7月中旬以来,欧元反转之前的强劲涨势,兑美元累计下跌约18.8%,上周兑日元汇率7%的跌幅则为欧元诞生以来最大单周跌幅。

      另一方面,今年上半年支撑欧元保持强劲的高利率水平如今也遭到很大挑战。根据彭博社对经济学家的调查,普遍认为欧洲央行将在明年继续降息至3.5%,高盛则大胆预测降至3%。

      而五六个月前市场热议的欧元或将取代美元主要储备货币的地位,现在也有点不攻自破的意味。房四海说:这是个理想化、情绪化的结论,欧元区15国仍无法与美国比及。

      位于伦敦的Hermes 养老基金管理公司外汇主管Momtchil Pojarliey也表示,在全球衰退中美元将表现更好,因此还无法动摇美元作为世界主要储备货币的地位。Hermes还预计欧元兑美元将在明年年底到达 1.20,兑包括英镑、瑞士法郎、瑞典克朗等在内的一揽子货币都会下跌。

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    Bullish eur88's Avatar
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    Default

    欧州明年经济会慢增长,美元大反弹可能

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