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Thread: 英鎊: 走勢型態不利英鎊 ▼▼

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    Default 英鎊: 走勢型態不利英鎊 ▼▼

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    ‧金恩暗示下次會議傾向降息

    ‧阻力參考1.9585‧1.9650

    ‧支撐參考1.9460‧1.9380**‧1.9200‧1.9000

    英國5月通膨率升至1997年工黨執掌政府以來的最高位,但英國央行的言論卻淡化了較早採取升息行動的可能性,因央行稱利率前景仍舊"不確定。英國統計局公佈5月消費者物價指數(cpi)較前月增長0.6%,較上年同期增長3.3%,年增率高於4月的3.0%,亦超出市場預估的3.2%。英國央行已經上調了對短期通膨率的預估,但表示未來同時面臨通膨上升和經濟成長下降的風險,央行決策處於兩難境地。在央行的信件發表後,短期英鎊利率期貨攀漲,英鎊擴大兌美元的跌幅,市場將信函解讀為英國今年升息的機率下降。



    英鎊週二跌至近一個月低點,英國央行稱遏制通膨前景充斥著不確定,週二公佈的通膨數據高於預期。英國5月消費者物價指數(cpi)年率升至3.3%,高於央行2%的目標,迫使央行總裁金恩致信財政部作出解釋。英國央行稱未來12個月內過於激進的平抑物價舉措將引發市場震蕩。英國央行總裁金恩稱燃料,食品等價格的高漲是推動通膨上升的主因,通膨下半年有可能會升逾4%。 Cpi數據公佈後英鎊跌至日低1.9466。因英國央行暗示其下次利率舉措可能是降息,而非升息,投資者靜候定於今日公佈的英國央行6月利率會議記錄,以尋獲有關利率前景的線索。



    型態上仍大致見到頭肩頂,現在頸線位置1.9380,此為關鍵中的關鍵,失守以此型態突破之運行,有機會大挫至1.90關口。較近支撐位則可先留意1.9460水平。阻力則留意10天平均線1.9585及25天平均線1.9650水平。




    英皇金融集團(香港)有限公司
    高級副總裁黃美斯 小姐

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