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Thread: 非美货币承压 金价暴风前之平静

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    Default 非美货币承压 金价暴风前之平静

    欧洲国家本周宣布大规模金融救援行动,面对近80年来最严重金融危机,欧洲大陆各国政府出手护卫银行和恢复市场信心。德国总理梅克尔公布一项救援计划,将提供4,000亿欧元银行担保,此外还将提供1,000亿欧元国家资金以重整银行资本结构。法国将创设两个融资载体,用至多3,200亿欧元为银行借贷提供担保,以及400亿欧元为需要资金的银行提供资本。英国则动用370亿英镑公共资金救援三家主要银行,此举可能令政府成为这些银行的主要股东。西班牙和奥地利政府亦宣布了类似措施以支撑各自的银行业以及稳定其金融系统,意大利则誓称竭尽所能来帮助银行,但没有给出总体数额。意大利方面表示,将对2009年12月31日之前新发行的期限最多5年的银行债券提供担保,并会降低银行贷款抵押品最低要求;意大利央行将以至多400亿欧元的公债换取银行债券。荷兰新闻机构anp稍后报导称荷兰政府也将担保2,000亿欧元的银行贷款。



    各国政府积极行动,向处于困境的银行挹注资金解决信贷危机后,美元短期利率降低。三个月美元同业拆息周二降幅为3月来最大,因应美国宣布向包括九大银行的金融机构挹注2,500亿美元资金。英国、德国、法国周一均宣布计划重整银行体系资本结构。因此承受风险意愿有所改善,令投资人出脱美元和日圆的避险交易。欧元周二则最高升见至1.3769,然而美股在尾盘大挫,将早段涨幅尽数回吐,最终更以跌市作结,令欧元亦见缩减周二大部份涨幅,至周三早盘已见回落至1.35区间。



    图表分析所见,欧元自9月底一轮大挫后,近两周走势可谓平稳发展,1.36一线基本上为其上落游走之中位线。日线图5天平均线正走近10天平均线,目前分别位于1.3560及1.3610,有机会出现短期利好交叉讯号;macd亦渐见有回稳象,macd线与讯号线已逐步收窄。stc则起始第三度背驰,技术讯号有反弹之倾向。预期目前较近阻力为1.37关口,较大阻力则位于1.3750-1.3800。若以黄金比率计算,1600点跌幅之23.6%反弹为1.3730,38.2%反弹则可看至1.3945水平。下方支持先会关注1.3440/50,此外,200周平均线亦见位于1.3376,倘若欧元进一步跌破1.3250水平,则预计欧元仍有较大之下跌空间,250周平均线1.3180将为下一个支持。

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    金价大回落,油价大跌,美金看多

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