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Thread: 英鎊:經濟形勢與加息預期背馳

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    Default 英鎊:經濟形勢與加息預期背馳

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    ‧零售數據刺激加息預期

    ‧阻力參考1.9750‧1.9800‧2.0000

    ‧支撐參考1.9665‧1.9600

    英國國家統計局週四公佈稱,英國5月零售銷售大漲3.5%,為1986年1月統計該項數據以來最強勁的月度增幅,主要受創紀錄的食品和服裝銷售所推動。市場原先預期這一數據為下滑0.1%。5月零售銷售較上同期大漲8.1%,預估為增長4.1%。強勁的零售銷售數據料將令市場益發預期英國央行將升息,儘管有關經濟增長放緩的憂慮猶存。

    英鎊兌美元升至逾一週最高1.9746,強勁的5月英國零售銷售數據提高了對英國央行可能升息的預期。然而,單憑該項數據不太可能改變英國央行對於經濟前景的負面看法。儘管英鎊受到支撐,但該數據與其他數據如此背離,相信英國央行將會等待7月數據,而後在作任何決定。

    圖表走勢所見,近期大型反覆之下試走勢,最低曾觸及1.9407,而高位則由1.9850,6月9日之1.98,至昨日1.9750,預計只要英鎊再進一步升破1.9750,技術形勢突破趨向線,以及100天平均線,後望進一步關卡則為1.98及2.00關口,另外,亦要關注250天平均線2.0040水平。較近支撐位則可先留意25天平均線1.9665,及1.96關口之10天平均線。

    相關要聞:

    英國國家統計局表示,5月政府收支短差漲幅高於預期,5月政府收支短差為109.87億英鎊,為自1984年開始此項統計以來最高的5月收支短差,市場預估為短差65億。

    英國財政部宣佈,現年54歲的英國央行首席經濟學家賓恩將成為央行新任副總裁,現任副總裁洛馬克斯將在本月底結束其五年任期。目前在英國央行就職的 Spencer Dale將接替賓恩的首席分析師職務,並成為貨幣政策委員會(MPC)的一員。英國央行副總裁吉弗(John Gieve)週四表示,在英國經濟走疲時需要進一步減息,但決策者需要平衡通膨壓力上升的風險。吉弗週三宣佈將在明年初退任央行副總裁一職後,他週四在英國一個商業活動的演說中表示,英國央行貨幣政策委員會(MPC)面對自1997年該機構成立來最富挑戰的環境。


    英皇金融集團(香港)有限公司
    高級副總裁黃美斯 小姐

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