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Thread: 关于外汇市场的短期过分波动

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    Default 关于外汇市场的短期过分波动

    国际外汇市场上外汇价格的每天波动幅度大致在0.5%~1.0%之间(即一至两分钱,用外汇市场的术语来说就是100点~200点),波动幅度大时可达到5%以上(即700点~1000点)。外汇市场上外汇价格经常性的大起大落说明了外汇市场的两大特征:第一,风险很大;第二,在外汇市场投资获得巨额利润的可能性存在。对于外汇市场经常出现的短期剧烈波动,经济学上称之为对信息的过分反应(overshooting)。对于什么是外汇行市的过分反应,经济学界始终有争论,目前大致有以下三种解释:

      第一,外汇的现货价格与外汇汇率的长期均衡价格发生偏离。人们经常在报纸上读到,某种货币的汇率目前是被高估的,或者是某种货币目前的汇率已远远低于它的合理价格。这些话所指的就是这种现象。

      外汇的价格是根据市场需求制定的人为的价格。由于外汇市场波动这一因素的存在,所以各大银行在每天报出外汇牌价时,往往在报出现货价格的同时,还会有一个远期价格,至少在外汇的期货市场里可以找到外汇的期货价格。外汇的期货价格从理论上来说应更接近于外汇的长期均衡价格。外汇的现货价格过分地偏离外汇的长期均衡价格也可以由多种原因来解释,可能是现货价格太低或太高,也可能是长期的均衡价格被估计得太低或太高。从市场运行本身来看,在投机性资本不充足时(在市场上交易的很少),或在外汇市场上投机性资本过多的时候(市场交易过热),现货价格的波动超过它的长期均衡价格就不是一种难以理解的现象了。

      第二,外汇的短期均衡价格波动幅度总是会超过它长期的均衡价格波动幅度。这种解释,假设所有会影响外汇行市的因素都会对外汇的价格波动产生作用,但这种作用的生效在时间和渠道上有差别,则造成短期均衡价偏离长期均衡价。对于外汇的短期均衡价偏离长期均衡价的现象,目前经济学界流行的解释是:当政府扩大货币供应量或降低利率时,市场上物价并不会马上上升,导致实际的货币供应量增加,外汇市场迅速反应,本国货币的汇价大幅度下跌,使外汇的短期均衡价过分地低于长期均衡价。而当物价在完全消化货币供应量增长因素时会上升,实际的货币供应量会有所下降,外汇的短期均衡价也会逐渐恢复到与长期均衡价趋于一致的状况。

      第三,外汇市场不是一个有效益的市场,即外汇价格的波动不能充分反映市场在一定时期内出现的全部信息,则导致外汇的实际价格经常会过分地偏离均衡价格。

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    建立合理的止损原则相当有效,谨慎的自救策略的核心在于不让亏损继续扩大。

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    在外汇市场投资获得巨额利润的可能性存在

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