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Thread: What are the chances ?

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    Post What are the chances ?

    Technical analysis and Fundamental analysis Both parties find an excuse to explain the past movements even though they are both right not all traders take the path of hearing both parties and applying the common sense between them i fell in this category for a while actually because i was making a system that was technically oriented .


    So how do technically oriented systems should see the market ?!!

    That was the question i was trying to answer the whole time i was developing my system, should i just consider past data as an indicator to how the following move will be like ?! OR should i take current move and try to match it with past moves to predict the next move

    After lots of time trying to understand my holy grail technique of trading i discovered i wasn't fully technical , how is that ? here we go :

    -- My model takes past moves and predict future moves from it + it confirms
    how the market will be going by finding an identical twin in the past data
    ,But, fundamentals work the same way they connect news events to the
    market move and make patters so whenever this news is released
    again the market will react to it in those exact patterns



    So i finally decided to include routine fundamental check before engaging the
    market as technical analysis can predict moves in normal market condition but it lacks when human emotions are the drive behind price moves of the day due to the fear of the upcoming news .



    Quote :


    A trader that see the market as ups&downs is a half-trader
    A trader that see the market as greed&fear is a half-trader
    A trader that see the market as a fun ride is a full-trader


    Let me explain the above quote,

    When you see the market as ups&downs you only see the ticks and you are emotion less towards that ticks which makes you vulnerable to clicking mistakes where you click sell instead of buy .

    When you see the market as greed&fear you only see what you want to see so you make the wrong decisions and hope for the best.

    When you see the market as a fun ride you see the whole picture because whenever you see the market going up you just wait it to reach the top then ride with it down ( the rollar coaster experience ).





    I know i sometimes enjoy the rollar coaster how about you ??


    Best Regards

    waleed elgamal ( forex trader )

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    Bullish IndigoSUN's Avatar
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    i think a QUOTE is the point of all message -)
    and it is correct IMHO
    don`t need to get nervous about positions, just relax

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    Hello, no doubt the trader who uses technical analysis and does not take into account the news,'re missing a huge tool.
    Most of the trader recommend a combination of fundamental analysis and technical analysis

    I personally, for the emotional issue of the trader, I recommend the book by Alexander Elder "of live trading"

    Greetings

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    I have heard many people clamoring for combinations of both fundamental and technical analysis. Please can anyone tell me the best technical analysis to use.

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    Default The Best Technical To Use

    I have heard many people clamoring for combinations of both fundamental and technical analysis. Please can anyone tell me the best technical analysis to use.

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    Bullish julia777's Avatar
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    is not that one is better than the other, they both have their advantages and disadvantages. the two types of analysis are very different and can not be compared If you're a fundamental analyst, you know what happens with the currency if the CPI comes out higher than 4% or that retail sales are higher than last month
    You can make a projection of the trend in the price of the currency, but you d be losing a great tool, not knowing what it tells you a RSI or MACD, the possible of entrances or exits market.

    and if you're a technical analyst, you know that you read the signs gives a stochastic, ADX, RSI or MACD and do not worry as he left the GDP or the trade balance, or what he said. Mr Bernanke or Mr Trichet, your technical analysis is not going to give you good results

    That's why I recommend that you use these two types of analysis.

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    Default

    Whatever the technical analysis many be, always funda will never change. Unless an integration of both not done, results will be in vogue.

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    anyway to make profit without any risk?

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    so can you tell us the best technical analysis to use ??

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    Profit without risk?
    Maybe only combinated hedge systems, but ALL trades are risky.
    The point is to get the risk smaller than profit, as small as it can be

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    well i like fun ride but its due to lot of volatility since last 10 months
    otherwise markets like these are really rare

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    I think not only the recent position is what controlling price on the chart,so whatever the strategy you use you might lose some money.

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    well i guess it is never possible to trade in fx market without making a loss.
    OSAWE EMMANUEL OSAWARU

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    I think the meaning of (A trader that see the market as a fun ride is a full-trader) is you should be cool and not nervous while you are trading ........Is that right or i missed the point?
    Thank you for your wise words

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    Wink

    IMHO, even the best indicator can also give error and cause a loss. that's fine, that's normal since we are trading in an open market. Average "excellent" indicator gives us a 80-20 WIN. where 80 is win whle 20 is lose. Good indicator gives us a result of 70-30 WIN situation.

    The best way to get into the market now is, use the indicator and, I believe the most important thing is, be prepared to accept the loss. Being cool is what makes us the real winner. Cool in term of not only in a matte of loss, but also in a matter of winning. How we overcome our euphoria when we close with green pips

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