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Thread: 工业国家之间外汇政策的协调

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    Default 工业国家之间外汇政策的协调

    在外汇市场的长期波动中,有一个值得注意的现象,就是外汇价格的波动在许多时候是由政府的政策变化引起的。这种政策变化包括两个方面:一是单独一个国家的货币和财政政策变化引起本国货币汇率变动,从而影响国际外汇市场;另一方面是工业国家之间的经济政策出现趋同或背道而驰时,外汇市场也会随之出现剧烈波动。我们在这里主要分析后一种波动。

      实行固定汇率制的布雷顿林体系解体后,国际货币体系面临的是没有体系的体系。1975年底,主要工业国家的首脑第一次在法国巴黎郊区开会,作出了修改国际货币基金组织有关固定汇率制条款的决定。据此,国际货币基金组织于1976年1月在牙买加的金斯顿举行会议,决定每个国家可选择任何自己愿接受的本国货币汇率。经过修改的国际货币基金组织协定第4款只是承认当时已实行的浮动汇率制,在工业国家之间如何就汇率问题加强协调方面,并没有给出任何明确的意见。

      与固定汇率制相比,浮动汇率制似乎在宏观经济政策方面减轻了各国政府的干预负担,而实际情况并不如此。对赞成浮动汇率制的人来说,浮动汇率制面临的三个问题都要求工业国家之间加强经济政策协调。本期我们来看货币政策的独立性问题。

      在固定汇率制条件下,各国货币当局的货币政策必须为本国货币的汇率负责,如果膨胀性货币政策导致本国货币汇价下跌,中央银行必须出面干预,支持本国货币的结果是膨胀性的货币政策失效。如果采取紧缩性的货币政策,本国货币汇价就会上涨,中央银行也必须出面干预,放松银根使利率下跌,汇价下跌,则紧缩性货币政策失效。所以,货币当局在固定汇率制时期是没有独立性可言的。在浮动汇率制的条件下,各国政府从理论上来说可以不对本国货币的汇率进行任何干预,让市场去决定它的均衡汇率,因而政府可以自由选择适合本国国情的货币政策与财政政策。

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    Default

    外汇政策又是很难协调的了

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    Default

    外汇政策的协调能给汇率的改变带来多大的影响呢?

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    Default

    政府的影响应该不大,主要是外汇市场的本身而起作用.

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