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Thread: 英镑跌势仍可能持续

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    Default 英镑跌势仍可能持续

    英镑跌势仍可能持续




    上 周英镑是最大的输家,周一延续早前跌势至两年来的低点1.8405,随后受到不尽人意的经济数据打压连续4日下跌。7月购房抵押贷款许可年率下跌65%, 接近上个月创下的历史低点。8月Nationwide房价指数年率下滑10.5%,跌幅为1991年以来的最大。与此同时,8月CBI零售销售差额分项从 -36跌至-46,为1993年此项调查开始以来的最低水平。过去6个月,英国房地产陷入衰退、消费支出和信心疲弱、贸易停止增长,然而英镑/美元汇率仍 持稳,背后原因到底是美国经济前景、技术面或是交易兴趣恶化谁也不知晓,唯一能肯定的是英国经济放缓是最为主要的打压因素。即将来临的利率决议对英央行来 说仍是巨大的困扰经济快速奔向衰退的同时通胀仍高居不下,虽然近期油价下滑帮助降低了物价压力。目前市场预期利率将维持不变,由于利率决议后没有任何声 明,因此预期其对英镑影响甚小。本周较为重要的事件风险是制造业和服务业采购经理人指数,预期两者将进一步下滑,英镑/美元可能测试周图 1.7047-1.9028升浪的61.8%回档1.7785附近。

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    下周空磅吗?

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