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Thread: 取舍之间

  1. #1
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    Default 取舍之间

    两个多月以来,市场用实际的走势向我们表明处于中期的震荡走势中,进入本周则出现了突破的征兆。那么,怎样看待目前的震荡和未来的突破,操作中怎样取舍才能保持长期稳定获利,就成为摆在我们面前的问题。
    从年初以来的历次讲座中,我都表明了一个判断,那就是今年的外汇市场整体而言是一个宽幅震荡市,今年的获利难度要高于2003年,在今年的行情中获利,需要非比寻常的耐心和截然不同的技巧。耐心是对中长期持有的投资者而言的,技巧是对习惯短线操作的投资者而言的。但耐心和技巧都不是一夜之间可以获得的,也许只有在无数次的痛定思痛之后,经验不足的投资者才能有深刻的认识和体验。而在此之前,大多数的投资者还是会以自己盲目的勇敢、不计后果的投入、想盈怕输的心态,在震荡的市场中不停顿的追涨杀跌,钱包渐瘪终不悔,为伊消得人憔悴。
    外汇市场上,国内外无数的投资者已经反复的证明,在所有的市场趋势中,震荡市是最难识别和操作的;而明确的单边走势,是最容易识别和获利的,有鉴于此,几乎所有的投机老手都在谆谆告诫:投机获利,最重要的是把握明朗的单边趋势,而在趋势不明朗的时候,最好的操作策略是保持观望。
    我们观察今年的走势,刚刚过去的几个月,对中长期的趋势跟踪型投资者而言,最好的操作策略也许就是耐心等待,等待出现明朗的突破趋势。当然,等待并不意味着市场上没有机会,市场上仍然有大量的震荡机会,但这些机会,可能只属于习惯于短线操作的人。
    对中长期的趋势跟踪型投资者而言,震荡恰恰是未来行情的基础,放弃震荡中的机会意味着对明朗的趋势的观察和把握。没有人可以把握所有的机会,但不同的投资者都有属于自己的机会,适合不同投资者的机会类型也各不同。对投资者而言,只需把握适合自己的机会,这也意味着要主动放弃大量的机会。取舍之间,衡量的则是投资者的自信、贪心、技巧和耐心。有一位做股票的朋友说,要学会放弃99%的机会,深以为然。
    回到市场,仍然看好非美货币未来一个月的走势,年内的宽幅震荡格局不会改变,在持续的下跌和震荡之后,我们应该可以看到久违的持续上涨。但日元也许是个例外。

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    Default

    震荡的 很剧烈,其实也 是有机会的 !!

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    Default

    怎样 看待目前的震荡和未来的突破,操作中怎样取舍才能保持长期稳定获利

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