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Thread: 外汇投资中盈亏概率影响

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    Default 外汇投资中盈亏概率影响

    交易的盈亏更多是由操作系统的盈利概率和盈亏比例共同决定

    在外汇交易中,很多投资者希望不断完善自己的投资技巧,找到一种可以屡战屡胜的投资技巧,但这几乎难以做到。由于外汇市场是最难被人为操纵的金融市场,因此在某些时候,汇率的波动充满了随机性。想要在此获得长期稳定的收益,就必须在完善投资技巧的同时,考虑盈利概率和盈亏比例对投资成绩的影响。

    所谓盈利概率,是指投资者的交易策略长期以来的成功概率,盈亏比例是指投资者平均每次盈利的利润与亏损金额的比例。如果说一次交易的盈亏是由分析技巧、运气等因素决定的话,那么一系列交易的盈亏,则更多的是由操作系统的盈利概率和盈亏比例共同决定的。

    例如上周一,笔者建议投资者在140之下重点看多欧元兑日元的交叉盘,目标为142附近,在138.5之下设置止损。一些投资者认为,这个交易策略在当时欧元兑日元交叉盘下跌趋势明显、看好日元气氛浓厚的背景下,似乎不太符合技术分析顺势而为的操作宗旨。

    笔者认为从技术分析来看,当时判断欧元兑日元交叉盘在138.50到139.50之间有潜在的中期支撑,同时上周欧元兑日元下跌趋势在日线上虽然明显,但在周线上还在上升趋势中,因此并非纯粹的逆市交易。

    从基本面分析,利率一直是近期市场的焦点,而欧元相对日元的利率优势也为该交叉盘最近的走势提供较好的支撑。

    在过去的实际交易中,笔者得出了一个参考的盈利概率,即在欧日交叉盘出现上周一的技术形态时,上涨的概率大约只有44%左右。

    但从盈亏比例考虑,如果欧日交叉盘下跌,只损失100点(碰到止损),此时上涨就可能获得200到300点的收益,每次盈利与亏损的比例平均为2.5:1.截至本周一,欧日交叉盘已经从139.2上涨到了141.5,实现了预期利润。单就这一次盈利来看,有运气的因素,因为这种交易模型的盈利概率还不足50%,但以一个交易者长期的眼光来看,本次交易的成败都只是长期的一系列投资中的一个组成部分,交易结束之后,胜固可喜,败不足悲。

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    Default

    外汇是很亏损的!!!!!

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    Default

    盈利概率是最重要的
    否则多次小额止损后等不到一次大的盈利来弥补了

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