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Thread: news

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    Default news

    this is week


    Sun
    Jul 8 5:30am EUR ECB President Trichet Speaks
    7:50pm JPY Core Machinery Orders m/m 1.8% 2.2%
    7:50pm JPY M2+CD Money Supply y/y 1.4% 1.4%
    Mon
    Jul 9 1:00am JPY Eco Watchers Survey 47.8 46.8
    2:00am EUR Germany Trade Balance 16.0B 15.0B
    2:00am EUR German Import Price Index m/m 0.9% 0.8%
    4:30am GBP PPI Input m/m 1.0% 1.2%
    4:30am GBP PPI Output m/m 0.3% 0.4%
    6:00am EUR German Industrial Production m/m 1.8% -2.3%
    3:00pm USD Consumer Credit m/m 6.4B 2.6B
    6:00pm NZD NZIER Business Confidence -15
    7:01pm GBP BRC Retail Sales Monitor y/y 2.2% 1.8%
    9:30pm AUD NAB Business Confidence 15
    9:30pm AUD Home Loans m/m 0.7% 2.2%
    Tue
    Jul 10 2:00am JPY Machine Tool Orders y/y 5.7%
    2:00am EUR German WPI m/m 0.3% 0.3%
    2:45am EUR French Industrial Production m/m 0.7% -0.8%
    4:00am EUR Italian Industrial Production m/m 1.0% -0.8%
    4:30am GBP Trade Balance -6.55B -6.32B
    8:15am CAD Housing Starts 214K 230K
    9:00am CAD Interest Rate Statement 4.50% 4.25%
    10:00am USD Wholesale Inventories m/m 0.4% 0.3%
    10:30am GBP Leading Index m/m 0.4% 0.6%
    1:00pm USD Fed Chairman Bernanke Speaks
    7:50pm JPY CGPI y/y 2.2% 2.2%
    7:50pm JPY Current Account 1.99T 2.28T
    8:30pm AUD WMI Consumer Sentiment m/m -2.0%
    Wed
    Jul 11 1:00am JPY Household Confidence 47.5 47.3
    9:00am EUR ECB President Trichet Speaks
    10:30am USD Crude Oil Inventories 3.1M
    7:01pm GBP RICS House Price Balance 21.0% 23.9%
    9:30pm AUD Employment Change 15.5K 39.4K
    9:30pm AUD Unemployment Rate 4.2% 4.2%
    Tentative JPY Interest Rate Announcement 0.50% 0.50%
    Thu
    Jul 12 12:30am JPY Industrial Production m/m (r) -0.4% -0.4%
    Tentative JPY BOJ Governor Fukui Speaks
    5:00am EUR Industrial Production m/m 1.0% -0.8%
    8:30am USD Trade Balance -60.0B -58.5B
    8:30am USD Unemployment Claims 315K 318K
    8:30am CAD Trade Balance 5.5B 5.8B
    8:30am CAD New Housing Price Index m/m 0.6% 0.8%
    8:35am USD Fed Governor Kroszner Speaks
    10:30am CAD BOC Monetary Policy Report
    6:45pm NZD Retail Sales m/m -1.2%
    6:45pm NZD Core Retail Sales m/m -0.9%
    Fri
    Jul 13 2:45am EUR French CPI m/m 0.1% 0.3%
    8:30am USD Retail Sales m/m 0.0% 1.4%
    8:30am USD Core Retail Sales m/m 0.2% 1.3%
    8:30am USD Import Price Index m/m 0.6% 0.9%
    10:00am USD Consumer Sentiment (p) 86.0 85.3
    10:00am USD Business Inventories m/m 0.3% 0.4%

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    ...chance of UK raise the interest rates again so we may see GBP/USD going down by 50 pips or more in the first hour of the report.

  3. #3
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    Market overview

    The dollar was largely flat over night, trading in a 1.3793-1.3814 range against the EUR and in a 121.76-122.0 range against the JPY. Markets have calmed after digesting Fed Chairman Bernanke's testimony but downside momentum remains with the dollar. Bernanke criticised by Congress for failing to address the subprime mortgage crisis, told lawmakers the central bank will write new lending regulations to strengthen consumer protections. Markets were largely expecting the Fed Chairman to stick to the Fed's hawkish bias and the initial reaction to his comments failed to indicate otherwise. Data released earlier also showed overall CPI rising more than expected to 0.2% m/m in June, though core CPI was in-line at 0.2% m/m. Nevertheless, Bernanke's projection that growth will moderate over the second half of 2007 before strengthening in 2008 suggest the Fed are adding more caution to their growth expectations. The reaction of the stock market suggests that investors are now looking to price in more downside risk to the economy, especially with the housing adjustment likely to continue for some time. Nevertheless, markets still expect the Fed to remain on hold pending a clear break in data and see no obvious catalyst for any changes to this view. Ahead today, initial claims at 13.30 BST will likely remain low at 310k, and the market is looking for moderation in the Philly Fed survey, exp 13.5 at 17.00 BST with markets may be bracing for a stronger number after Monday's strong Empire Manufacturing release.

    The ECB yesterday issued a firm rebuke against suggestions from a French minister that interest rate decisions could be influenced by holding more frequent meetings between the ECB and finance ministers. In an official statement, without directly naming names, the central bank called the comments "not acceptable" and a treaty violation. The market has long become unimpressed by threats against ECB independence but comments by any governing council members on the EUR should remain in focus. More warnings against excessive rate movements have raised eyebrows since the recent rally in EURUSD and although the markets remain focused on a September hike, a stronger EUR and worsening credit conditions may lead to some questions over the validity of continued aggressiveness by the ECB.

    The MPC minutes from the July 5 meeting, released Wednesday, showed a 6:3 vote split in favour of a rate hike. The result was more dovish on balance, as the meeting minutes suggested that the gap between the hawks and the doves (Bean, Lomax and Blanchflower) is becoming wider. The MPC regards housing and activity data as pivotal elements in assessing the UK economy, and the August Inflation Report which is expected to incorporate recent developments in these sectors, will be critical to rate expectations. Higher interest rate expectations will keep GBP supported in the near term.

    Speakers (all times BST)

    15.00 Fed’s Bernanke testifies Day 2

    19.00 FOMC minutes



    Currencies

    EURUSD sees bids around 1.3775/85 then 1.3750/60. Bullish sentiment above 1.3731. Above offers at 1.3820, then all-time high of 1.3834 and option barrier at 1.3850.

    USDYEN remains neutral between 121.55 and 122.42 this week’s high. The Ichimoku Cloud top today comes in at 121.45.

    GBPUSD still has projection levels of 2.0564 and 2.0646 while 2.0545 remains a 26 year high. Support seen at 2.0450 but noted are Fibonacci retracement levels at 2.0433, 2.0362, 2.0330 and 2.0305.

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    Economic News

    USD

    Yesterday The dollar fell to new lows against the Euro and broke its previous record of $1.3813, at the same time the British pound has arrived at a new trading level against the American dollar, over 2.05, this is a all time high more than a quarter of a century. The pair moved up from 2.0490 to 2.0549 in a little more than an hour. The strength in the GBP/USD is driven almost exclusively by dollar weakness and not pound strength. If anything, the Bank of England signaled that even if we do have another rate hike this year, it will not be until the latter part of the fourth quarter, at the earliest
    With the US dollar hitting a record low against the Euro and the British pound many Americans wonder whether more weakness is expected for the US dollar. The main fear is that the situation will eventually lead to weaker spending and lower growth across the nation, but on the other hand, many people have also forgotten the benefits that the weaker dollar can bring to the economy. With the outlook so dire, a weak currency could actually be what ends up saving the economy.

    Also yesterday, Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke Delivered the Fed's semiannual report to Congress. Bernanke told to the Congress that the housing market could dampen an expected pickup in U.S. economic growth, but at the same time, he restated that the central bank's main worry is inflation. However, Bernanke also listed a number of factors that could spark inflation, including a tight job market and the possibility energy prices could move higher. As a result of weaker-than-expected home building, the Fed cut its forecast for growth this year by a quarter-percentage point to a range of 2.25% to 2.5%, and downgraded its 2008 projection as well. Bernanke warned that a recent moderation in core inflation may simply reflect temporary influences. He also said there was a risk lofty energy and food prices could cause expectations of future inflation to rise, possibly unleashing an upward spiral of wages and prices. Bernanke didn't give any hint that the Fed was considering relaxing its inflation-fighting bias, warning instead that recent "favorable" core inflation readings, which strip out food and energy prices, are subject to "considerable noise" and "could also be the result of transitory influences."

    The Fed cut its economic growth projections by a quarter percentage point to a range of 2.25% to 2.5% this year and 2.5% to 2.75% in 2008, mainly due to a steeper-than-expected downturn in housing construction. The Commerce Department said housing starts set an annual rate of 1.467 million units in June compared with a revised 1.434 million unit pace in May. Economists had forecast June housing starts to drop to a 1.45 million unit pace from the 1.474 million unit rate originally reported for May last month. Building permits fell 7.5% in June to a pace of 1.406 million units. That's just above the 1.402 million unit rate seen in June 1997 and below the 1.48 million unit rate that economists had expected.

    EUR

    The currency pair climbed to a new record high of 1.3835 following the comments from the US central bank. At the moment the European Central Bank is less stressed about the need to raise rates, the growing chance of a rate cut before a rate hike in the US is driving the dollar lower.

    One would expect that the ECB begin backing off, given the recent appreciation in their EUR, but instead of showing any signs of concern; yesterday, Trichet warned that any attempts to influence the ECB would be in violation of the EU treaty. This situation suggests that they are not willing to talk down the Euro and will only do so under their own terms. The Euro was choppy against the majors in trading on Wednesday afternoon in New York. The currency moved as the Euro zone reported its trade surplus for May. Yesterday afternoon, the European currency bounced between a high of 1.3829 and a low of 1.3761. On the whole, the Euro continues to move at a multi-year high against the American dollar. Today, The Swiss will report at 07:15GMT on the trade balance for June, while at 09:30GMT the UK is set to announce its Retail Sales. Other news from the area will include German producer prices.

    Switzerland will report on its Trade Balance for June on Thursday. The prior period showed a level of 1.04 billion, and is expected to advance slightly in tomorrow's data. Other news from the area will include the results of a ZEW Survey for Expectations for July.

    Great Britain will announce Retail Sales data on a monthly and annual basis for June on Thursday. The previous month saw a rate of 0.4%, and is expected to decline in tomorrow's data. Meanwhile, the prior year's results were 3.9%, and are also anticipated to drop slightly. Other news from the area will include Public Finances and Sector Net Borrowing for June, the M4 Money Supply and Sterling Lending and BSA Mortgage Approvals for the same period.

    JPY

    Yesterday, Japan's All-Industries Activity Index, which covers a broad range of economic activity including the tertiary index, dropped 0.3 % in May from the previous month, the first decline in two months, the ministry said the downturn was due to the weakness in the tertiary index as well as industrial output . The electric machinery makers' confidence rose to a four-month high and non manufacturers' sentiment improved, a sign that corporate-sector strength continues to underpin Japan's solid economic recovery. The Tankan Index, a monthly survey of leading Japanese companies, produced a diffusion index (DI) of plus 23 for manufacturing firms in July. That was down from a five-month high of plus 31 in June this figure usually notes on slowing the economic growth in Japan which eventually supposed cause to a JPY reduction. Carry traders aren't quite ready to give up yet. The only currencies that the JPY managed to rally against were the Euro, Swiss franc, US and Canadian dollars and for the most part, the damage was small. Looking ahead, we expect a flat trading after night session when no significant data due to be out in near days however the JPY will be effected from the other majors.


    Technical News

    EUR/USD

    The daily chart is bearish as the Slow Stochastic crossed at 86 and also RSI 80 implying on the continuation of the current trend and will test the 1.3775 Fibonacci 76.4% level. On the 4 H chart a bullish flag is establishing however an upcoming reversal is not yet expected and the bears will stay in the picture for a while.

    GBP/USD

    The pair range traded yesterday after quite a steady uptrend which seems to be calmer. The daily charts are heading up as the hourlies are unwinding from overbought levels ,and support relatively flat trading. The next target price might be around 2.0540.

    USD/JPY

    On the daily chart a mild bearish channel is observed which might indicates the near future behavior of this pair as also RSI 39 and Slow Stochastic at 38 as them both having a negative slope implying that the next target is 121.00 and will be tested in the upcoming weeks. On the 4 H chart indicators seem to be sailing in neutral territory as usually indicates an upcoming breakout of the neutral channel barriers which is located at 121.57 - 122.35. Hedging seems to be the right strategy until the breakout direction will be determine.

    USD/CHF

    The pair shows consolidation around the key level of 1.2010 which proves to be very significant level. A preferable strategy might be to wait for the oversold hourlies levels as traders should pay close attention to the 1.1990 level to unwind before taking a long position.


    The Wild Card

    Silver

    Silver is expected to be more attractive then ever since the daily chart is bullish. However, there is an upcoming reversal which forex traders might use for profit taking in the coming days. On short term there is more room to go as silver expected to test the 13.41 Fibonacci 76.4% retracement level before the reversal will take place.
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    The gbp/usd pair range traded yesterday after quite a steady uptrend which seems to be calmer. The daily charts are heading up as the hourlies are unwinding from overbought levels ,and support relatively flat trading. The next target price might be around 2.0540

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    the gbpusd is down trend

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