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Thread: 今日概述(8.29)

  1. #1
    Bullish loveupwho's Avatar
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    Lightbulb 今日概述(8.29)

    美元指数:
    美国公布数据继续显示房地产市场疲软,但耐用品订单和GDP数据均好于预期,显示美国经济具有较强弹性,8月就业数据并未明显转淡,总体支持了美元本周保持高位震荡,美元周图指标超买但MACD继续向上,下周仍可能震荡;有一定调整风险。
    策略:观望,远期涨势目标77.93、80.10

    人民币:
    从国际环境来看,前期美元强势上行,近期强势整理,这抑制了人民币兑美元年初以来的强劲升势,人民币兑美元近期保持在前期汇改以来高点之下强势整理,同时,国际大宗商品价格展开调整,这些对中国贸易状况进而对经济总体将起到刺激作用,并减轻进口通胀压力。

    美元日元:
    日本7月核心消费者物价指数(CPI)较上年同期成长2.4%,再创10年新高,日本可能面临衰退,原油与食品价格高涨冲击消费者支出。数据不太可能改变日本央行暂将维持利率不变的看法,央行将权衡经济成长与通膨上扬的风险。CPI年增率破2%,可能促使日本央行在短时间内升息。
    策略:坚持多投趋势 目标111.50

    美元瑞郎:
    美元兑瑞郎小幅下跌至5日和10日均线之下,最低见1.0934,仍保持高位震荡走势。汇价本周持续震荡,今日可能延续该走势。适度关注欧美数据,下周一美国金融市场将休市。
    策略:远期涨势,远期目标1.1274 有可能回调到1.0850的风险

    美元加元:
    加元周四下滑,因国际能源署(IEA)表示若热带风暴Gustav在下周初袭击墨西哥湾石油中枢,该组织将释放战略石油储备,油价应声下挫。稍早油价升穿 120美元,带动加元升至1.0432。另一影响加元的因素是市场愈发预期加拿大央行将不得不降息提振经济,这同美国下一利率举措将为升息的市场预期截然相反。
    策略:多单目标1.0582

    欧元美元:
    欧洲央行(ECB)执委会委员斯麦吉周四表示,欧洲央行正竭尽所能拉低通胀,但即便升息至4.5%,也并不是特别具有限制性。
    策略:空单目标1.4480

    英镑美元:
    英国央行理事布兰弗罗28日表示,为应对经济持续放缓状况,英国央行必须减息25个基点以上。但他表示,只是预期经济停滞可能还太过乐观.英镑贸易加权指数周四挫至12年低点,因英国房价和零售销售数据疲软,加剧市场对经济衰退的担忧。
    策略:空单目标1.8180

    澳元美元:
    澳洲7月民间信贷较上月上升0.5%,符合市场预估,房屋信贷较上月上升0.5%。澳元周四一度涨至三日最高位1.8693,脱离近期创下的11个月低位,此前强劲的第二季资本支出数据降低了对于澳洲央行下周大幅降息的预期。金价上涨和美元走疲亦支撑澳元。周四澳洲公布的强劲资本支出数据暗示,该国经济仍活力十足。
    策略:支撑0.8579 有反弹上行可能

    纽元美元:
    纽元兑美元周四曾走坚至三日高点0.7073,受于欧元区降息的预期减弱和澳元走强。纽元受众多市场因素推动走强,澳元走坚也辅助纽元走强,此前澳洲优于预期的资本支出数据令投资者降低了对于澳洲央行下周大幅降息的预期。但纽西兰财政部长库伦(Michael Cullen)称该国经济面对20年来最严峻的挑战的讲话,提醒投资者国内忧虑仍存。
    策略:空单目标0.6800

    免责声明:仅供参考用途,不宜视为专业意见或建议!
    Last edited by loveupwho; 08-29-2008 at 09:28 AM.
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  2. #2
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    每天都发一次就好了

  3. #3
    Piplet
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    Default

    Gbp真是太弱了

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