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Thread: 油价走势飘忽 非美各自为战

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    Default 油价走势飘忽 非美各自为战

    上周五,原油价格强势下探,美元受益重返上升通道。而非美货币的走势也逐渐出现了分化:周五晚间,美股大涨,风险情绪打压日元走低;英国下修2季度gdp值,市场对英国后半年的经济前景预期愈发悲观,英镑于周五晚纽约盘狂泻200余点;原油价格如坐过山车般大起大落,使大宗商品价格尚未完全反映又掉头向下,商品货币澳元、加元同样出现分化:加元在上周强大数据的掩护下目前整体处于弱势下行的整理格局;而澳元自身的基本面并不理想,因此基本处于单边下行的走势。而近期市场重心似乎并不在欧元,同时相关消息面的相对清淡也转移了市场视线,欧元跌幅较小。

      本周美元走向试析:上周5,伯南克在主题为金融体系稳定及监管机构发展与改革的一年一度的联储年会上发言,着重强调由于大宗商品价格企稳,全球经济增长趋缓,加之通货膨胀预期得到控制,物价压力最终将缓和,并进一步点明如果油价和美元的走势不发生逆转,加上经济增幅可能在一段时间内不及潜在水平,那么通货膨胀压力将在今年晚些时候或明年有所缓解,言下之意是fed在年内没有任何升息的意向。这虽然对美元不构成利好,但是鉴于伯南克整体的言论基调依然趋向乐观,在一定程度上为美元买盘提供了砝码。另外,对于美元走向核心参照的原油价格,上周cftc在近期的一份统计调查报告中指出,目前纽约商品期货交易所近8成的原油期货头寸握在投机商手中,这就极大增加了油价走势的不确定性,同时对美元于近期塑造的中线强势雏形构成了潜在的障碍。后市来看,由于市场看多美元的热情极高,美元强势在本周续写,仍存在极大的刚性动力,当然前提是油价的表现不再出乎市场预料,因为再优秀的分析机构对当前油价的走势都将难以下手。而非美货币方面,分化格局将进一步延续,继英镑大跌后,市场重心或许将再次偏向欧元,而本周也有数项欧元区一线数据出炉;整体大势来看,1.49依然是极强的阻力。美股方面,二房始终是两颗毒瘤,近期又再爆出房地美拟找私人股本公司参股融资;同时政府一再放风称将接管二房,这使投资者担心投资缩水,这一情况无疑给其融资的道路上设置了极大的障碍;日元或将于美股下探中受益。

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    Default

    油价,黄金,美圆,难道就没有几个和这些不是太挂钩的交易么

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