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Thread: 中国经济能安全过冬

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    Default 中国经济能安全过冬

    百年奥运并没有激起市场的做多热情,相反恐慌情绪有所蔓延。易方达价值成长基金经理潘峰认为,令市场恐慌的是对经济前景的忧虑,这已经取代对通胀恶化的担忧而成为导致目前a股市场下跌的主要原因。

      潘峰认为,仅仅从市场的角度观察,这个事实带有一定程度的黑色幽默意味:在导致通胀恶化预期的原油、农产品期货价格大幅回落的时候,人们将其更多地理解为世界经济的衰退已经开始,原油和农产品的泡沫刺破了世界经济繁荣的泡沫,而后者又加剧了前者泡沫破裂的速度。在这里,我们再次看到了经济本身的自洽性,泡沫渐次产生,又逐一破裂,形成了一个又一个的经济周期。

      问题在于2007年之前世界经济的繁荣究竟存在多大的泡沫,究竟建立在多大程度的真实需求之上。潘峰相信,即使世界经济有可能步入衰退周期,以中国政府提前采取的宏观调控形成的安全边际、中国企业目前的资产负债情况以及中国普通家庭的资产结构来看,中国应该能相对较安全地度过冬天。但相对全球各主要经济体股票市场的表现,目前a股市场并没有体现它的安全性,问题很大程度是因为a股市场的不完善和不成熟。

      易方达基金科翔基金经理刘芳洁则更多地从投资者心态方面去观察目前的市场。

      市场短期的涨跌将在投资者的意识中强化某一方面,市场因此不断在过度乐观和过度悲观之间摇摆。目前时点上,悲观者看到的是中国经济增速的放缓,从而进一步开始担心经济是否陷入衰退。但如果从积极的角度去看呢?中国在经济增速放缓的同时正在实现增长方式和增长结构的转变,在行业利润增速放缓的同时企业却在进行分化整合。市场的走势正在让我们不断强化对于前者的预期,市场先生再一次发挥了它神奇的影响力。此时的一个问题是,大幅下跌到底是买入的机会还是卖出的理由呢?这个问题同样易问难答。刘芳洁建议,投资者如果无法把握奇怪的市场先生的心态和行为,至少可以把握自己的心态和行为。

    来自:市场报

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