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Thread: 欧元/美元:关注原油走势

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    Default 欧元/美元:关注原油走势

    欧元/美元数次测试1.4755支持,但迄今未能成功跌破,汇价反弹到1.4770附近,传闻一家亚洲央行早盘做空,可能在干预汇市,支持本币。欧美今日无重大数据,关注油价和美国金融领域消息。欧元/美元现报1.4768/73。

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    Default 亚市20日欧元兑美元上行受阻

    因缺乏消息面支撑,20日亚市盘初,欧元兑美元上行受阻于1.48水平后小幅走低。截至北京时间11:00,欧元兑美元汇价报1.4760。

    隔夜北美汇市美国公布的7月生产者物价指数季调后月升1.2%年升9.8%,为1981年6月以来最高年率,强于预期的月升0.5%年升9.2%;核心PPI月升0.7%年升3.5%,为17年来最高年率,高于预期的月升0.2%年升3.2%。

    数据增幅超出市场意料,对美联储现行的低利率政策提出挑战,同时若价格传导能力有限,不能有效推动零售价格上涨,亦将对企业盈利构成威胁。

    美联储理事费舍尔表示,近期大宗商品价格大幅回落不应被视为通货膨胀的解药。即使美国经济增长继续放缓,考虑加息也是有道理的。在涉及美元汇率问题时,他指出,美联储在防止金融市场恶化方面取得了很大成果。鉴于美国经济的持久动力,美元近期
    反转在预料之中。费舍尔作为美联储内部知名的强硬派人物,发表上述言论亦在情理之中。不过市场对美联储加息预期仍显悲观,FFR期货合约价格显示,美联储10月29日和12月16日会议维持利率不变的概率分别上升至79.2%和76.9%。

    另外有报道称,雷曼兄弟正考虑出售包括Neuberger Berman在内的货币管理部门,藉此融资数十亿美元以缓解房地产相关损失带来的压力。美金融机构摆脱困境的能力遭受质疑,住房及金融市场动荡局面成为美国经济复苏的最大障碍,使美元走势承受一定抛压。

    但瑞穗银行(Mizuho Corporate Bank)高级交易员Shuichi Kanehira表示,欧元/美元的上修可能不会在亚洲时段继续。Kanehira声称,隔夜纽约时段,美股下跌,油价上升,美国新屋开工数据疲软提振了欧元/美元,但是美国经济数据疲软已经被市场纳入考虑,早已不是新闻,而欧元区经济同样表现不佳。因为外汇市场没有明确的方向,今天也没有重要事件,美元近期走势可能会出现一些波动。一旦买盘卖盘向一方倾斜,头寸调节也将紧随其后,这将成为目前外汇市场的主要驱动力。他预期,欧元/美元今天将于1.4750至1.4820区间内交投,原油和股市仍是市场焦点。

    今日欧洲时段适当关注欧元区6月建筑业产出,晚间关注美国能源部公布一周库存数据。

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