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Thread: 全球经济皆弱,美元跌势宣告结束

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    Default 全球经济皆弱,美元跌势宣告结束

    全球经济皆弱,美元跌势宣告结束

    布朗兄弟哈里曼公司的汇率分析师日前宣布,美元多年来的下跌趋势已经结束,已完成筑底的过程,建议投资者趁着欧元修正性弹升时开始布局欧元的长期空头部位。

    纽约期货交易所反应美元对其他主要货币汇率的美元指数期货上周大涨近3.3%后,本周一又再上扬0.37%。美国《商业周刊》指出,美元近来对其他主要货币强劲走升,不是因为市场对美国经济增长有信心,而是因为预期其它国家经济增长趋疲。

    标普旗下的证券研究服务公司上周五也在报告中写道:美元近来的上涨,大体上可归因于市场预期美国短率已触底,加上欧洲央行进一步紧缩的可能性降低。 石油及其它商品的价格近几周来大跌,也促成美元的转弱为强。

    Pinnacle公司财务顾问艾维诺认为,美元反弹的另一个原因,是近几个月同时获得美国财政部及美联储的口头支撑,特别是过去很少谈论美元价值的美联储。

    EverBank旗下线上部门的总裁崔特判断,美元先前因油价飙升及金融危机深化而可能已超贬,这将让美元持续走强到今秋或甚至到冬季,不过经济基本面仍指向美元长期看贬。崔特认为,美国的财政政策及不断扩大的贸易逆差,是过去六年拖累美元下跌的主因,也将是未来几年美元趋贬的根源。

    美联储(Fed)的决策单位上周二决定让指标短率维持在2厘不变,两天后欧洲央行(ECB)的决策委员会也同样将其主要短率维持在4.25厘不变。不过投资策略师预期,美联储与欧洲央行接下将背道而驰,前者的下一个政策动作将是加息,而后者似乎较倾向于在未来一年内最少减息一次。这种观点造成欧元在上周五对美元大跌及本周一进一步走弱。

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    Default

    美元现在只是迎来了反弹,他跌势应该还没有结束,次级贷音响不是一会的事。

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