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Thread: 走强的美元 带刺的玫瑰 一

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    Default 走强的美元 带刺的玫瑰 一

    走强的美元 带刺的玫瑰
    转瞬之间,美钞突然变得抢手起来。不过,赚钱并不一定就此变得更容易。

      在苦苦挣扎了数年之后,美元终于又成为了市场的宠儿。在过去一个月中,美元兑欧元汇率上涨8%。上周五,美元再次走高,欧元兑美元报1.4673美元;与此相比,上月欧元一度升到了1.60美元。一些看涨美元的分析师甚至预计,到明年夏季之前,欧元可能会跌至1.40美元。美元兑英镑也经历了同样的升势,只兑日圆升幅稍逊一筹。

      在美元狂飙的背后是普遍放缓的欧洲经济。上周公布的数据显示,第二季度欧元区经济回落0.2%,是1999年欧元问世以来的首次回落。另外,油价的下跌也助长了美元的涨势,因为能源价格走软减轻了通货膨胀压力,使得欧洲央行可以更从容地开始采取降息的措施挽救下滑的经济。今年夏初,投资者曾赌定欧洲央行会通过加息对抗通胀。

      标准普尔(Standard & Poor)的首席经济学家大卫?怀斯(David Wyss)表示,人们对欧洲经济的预期已经恶化,这对美元是个好消息。尽管美元依然面临着长期基本面因素的考验,但有越来越多的人相信,美元汇率将会继续缓慢爬升,至少在明年是如此。

      汇率的变动对于利率、公司利润、商品价格和并购交易等有着广泛、并且常常是相互矛盾的影响,尤其是当投资者认为某种货币的走势将会继续的时候,更是这样。不断走高的美元究竟会产生怎样的影响呢?

      对于美国股市而言,走强的美元无异于平复人心的一剂良药,它使得进口货物和商品变得便宜,有助于遏制国内的通胀形势,并由此提振公司盈利,减轻人们对加息的担忧。美元走强还能增添美国股市对外国投资者的吸引力,因为当他们将美股收益兑换成本国货币时,无形中将会增加一笔收入。不过,坚挺的美元也有可能损害通用电气(General Electric Co.)和可口可乐(Coca-Cola Co.)等一批美国的跨国企业,因为当它们将海外收益换成美元时,收益将会缩水。

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    走强的美元无异于平复人心的一剂良药

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