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Thread: 美国7月零售销售5个月来首次下降

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    Default 美国7月零售销售5个月来首次下降

    美国7月零售销售5个月来首次下降

    美国7月零售销售月率下降0.1%,略低于市场预期,是5个月来首次下降,主要是受到汽车及其零部件销售下降拖累,该分项月率下降2.4%,年率下降 10.5%。除去汽车外的核心零售销售上涨0.4%,也低于市场预期,数据突显了高物价,房价下跌以及就业市场恶化带给消费者的压力。同时公布的进口物价指数7月上涨1.7%,年率创下纪录高点21.6%,显然这将限制一些汽油和原材料的供应,增大物价上涨压力。随着政府财政刺激效果的消失,预期消费者支出将继续减弱,而这将对gdp增长形成负影响。关注周四将公布的美国通胀数据,它将引导市场对美联储利率政策的预期。另外原油价格4天来首次上涨,也打击美国消费者信心,美国股市在零售商以及金融股的引跌下连续第二天下降。美元因此短暂受压,不过日元交叉盘空头纷纷回补,推动美元/日元持续走高,美指纽约时段震荡运行。英国就业数据也疲软,这种全球性经济放缓将继续减弱对石油等商品的需求,预期油价将可能继续下跌,而这将继续支持美元上涨。

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    美国金融股利空云集,周二不少银行业绩被评级机构下调评级;里士满联储分行行长JeffreyLacker周二表示,美国经济有衰退风险。上述两因素均促成美元回调。另外,格鲁吉亚局势缓和及经济指标高发亦助跌了美元。

      格鲁吉亚和乌克兰均为北约东扩潜在对象,这两个国家越乱,市场对欧元的信心就越弱。另外,富有资源的前苏联国家政局不稳有可能造成油价等上涨,这也是欧元潜在利多。因此,当战乱有缓和迹象时,欧元买盘会增加,相应地压制美元汇率。

      美元自上周五以来巨幅上涨后,短线超买非常明显,当有了一些利空时,美元顺势出现一些调整也很正常。周三,美元初步于亚洲交易时段回探成功,未来短期走势或取决于周三晚间美国零售数据。经济学家们预测美国7月零售额将出现五个月来首次下滑,因为当时创纪录的油价,盖过了退税政策的影响。

      周四,美国还将有失业金申请人数、CPI等重要指标公布。周三午后公布的欧元区6月工业产值为零增长,而预测是微增0.1%,该指标公布后,欧元几乎没怎么动。今日欧元区将公布二季GDP及7月CPI等重磅指标。美元能否维持涨势,极大地取决于这些将密集公布的重量级经济指标。

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