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Thread: 澳元/美元:关注近期数据

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    Default 澳元/美元:关注近期数据

    澳储行明确给出将减息的信号,市场将参考数据推测减息时间,周四的就业数据将受到关注,若低于预期将支持澳储行在9月减息。澳元/美元仍承压,现报0.9223/28,关键支持在200日均线0.9205,接着是0.9020 (0.7670-0.9850升浪的38.2%fibo回档)
    交易是1 件慎重的事情~~~

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    澳储行今日公布保持利率在7.25%不变,在货币政策声明中表示综合各个方面考虑预期需求将受到抑制,经济增长将相当缓慢,通胀将随着时间的推移回落,放宽货币政策空间加大。澳元/美元在声明后跌落,另一方面,澳储行强调前景存在很大不确定性,没有给出何时减息的信号,有些让市场失望,这可能很大程度取决于能源价格走势,市场将参考数据推测减息时间,周四的就业数据将受到关注,若低于预期将支持澳储行在9月减息。昨日油价一度跌至120美元下方,crb商品指数跌至3个月低点,也给澳元带来利淡。

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    关键支持在200日均线0.9205,接着是0.9020

    看来澳元 是不行了

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    上周美元可以说打了一场相当凌厉的翻身仗,兑各主要货币都大幅上涨,其中兑澳元更是创下近期少见的单周涨幅。

      短线支持美元的理由主要有三个:第一,美国的经济数据没有想象中的差;第二,欧洲的经济增长乏力,澳大利亚及新西兰等原来经济比较好的国家也因出口减少,使得经济有所放缓;第三,美元加息的希望重燃。目前市场对以上观点及其后果的信息消化得相当快,单从澳元一周下跌超过3%就可以感觉得到,这种激烈波动对于投资者来说就是风险。

      澳元0.940关口轻易跌破

      0.940整数关口,对于澳元来说是相当重要的支持,它是由上半年多个上升底部所形成的趋势线支持,结果不到两天就被成功突破,来到0.928的澳元仿佛是断线风筝。跌到这些位置可以做的事情已不多,要么凭感觉操作,要么等价格稳定后再作打算。

      参考技术指标,当前已经进入超卖,当价格出现快速反弹时做些30至60点的超短线应该没问题,但是想在短期回到0.938或更高,希望不太大。建议想做澳元的朋友最好等一等,周三凌晨美国的议息会议过后,明确美联储短期无加息意向,再介入澳元也不迟。

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    他表示,对澳大利亚经济陷入衰退的可能性进行猜测是非常不负责任的。

      澳洲联储(ReserveBankofAustralia)定于北京时间周二12:30召开利率会议。许多行业团体呼吁央行在短期内下调利率以减轻企业的压力。

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    澳元跌破0.93后就不容易上去啦,估计会在0.88-0.93之间波动了。

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    澳元现在大跌

    可惜没抓住机会

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