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Thread: 房市拖累经济 英镑中短期受压

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    Default 房市拖累经济 英镑中短期受压

    英皇金融集团 黄美斯

      市场预计美国联邦储备理事会(FED)在年底前都将维持利率不变,因联储监控楼市下滑、金融市况动荡和能源成本高涨的后果。美国劳工部上周公布7月失业率攀升至5.7%,为四年多来最高水平,因雇主连续第七个月裁减员工。7月非农就业人口减少5.1万,原先市场预计7月非农就业人口减少7.5万,失业率预计仅升至5.6%。数据颇为接近预估,市场原以为数据会很恶劣,因此美元在数据发布后上涨,因为就业人数跌幅并不如预估的大。本周美元的走势将倾向依赖技术面,若美元指数突破74关口,将可能呈现进一步强势。

      央行难以加息抑通胀

      英镑上周走势反覆,周初急挫至1.9741,但周四又见反弹至1.99上方,最终周五在美元走强的情况下再次下挫,创三周低位1.9725。上周英国公布之数据显示,房价挫跌且消费者信心指数创纪录低点,均彰显出经济疲势。英国7月制造业指数连续第三个月萎缩,降至44.3的10年低点;其中投入价格分项升至82.4的历史高位。另外,7月份英国房价连续第九个月下跌,年跌幅达8.1%,是自1991年开始调查以来年跌幅最大纪录。此外,GfK英国消费者信心指数创纪录新低,进一步显示英国房市恶化继续打击整体经济,对英镑生成进一步的压力。

      一系列数据反映出英国房市的恶化和经济的低迷,或令英国央行难以选择升息来对抗通胀,这或将令英镑在未来几个月承压。高通胀令英国央行迟迟没有升息,即使一些对通胀持强硬态度的委员也承认政策制定存在难度,曾在月初投票支持加息的MPC委员贝斯利就对每日电讯报称,货币政策的制定极其困难,因通胀上升风险和经济下滑风险势均力敌。路透调查显示,所有76位分析师均预计英国央行会在本周会议上维持利率于5%不变。

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    处下降通道考验1.9685

      图表所见,英镑当前处于下降通道当中,底部为1.97关口,上方顶部则见于1.9930。以当前技术指标所见,10天已交叠于25天平均线在1.9880,有机会促成利淡交叉,rsi及stc维持偏弱走向,反映中短期英镑倾向处于承压。自6月13日低位 1.9407至7月15日高位2.0153之升幅,黄金比率计算61.8%回调将见至1.9685水平。估计7月7日低位1.9647亦为另一参考支撑。至于20周及50周保历加通道底部则分别见于1.9430及1.9455。较近阻力则预计为5天平均线1.9830及10天平均线1.9880水平,估计需进一步回返250天平均线1.9990上方,才可望英镑重新回稳

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