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Thread: 本周四大央行公布利率决议

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    Default 本周四大央行公布利率决议

    本周四大央行公布利率决议,周二是澳储行,接着周三是美联储,周四英央行和欧央行。澳储行寄望经济降温能带动通胀回落,预期将保持利率在7.25%不变,直至2009年初,之后可能开始减息,但若工资迅速增长,下半年CPI年率超过5%,将引起市场恐慌,利率前景也将改变。本周美联储加息可能几近为零, Dailyfx预期年底前美联储将加息至2.75%。英央行周四预计将保持利率不变,因近期油价大跌,英国零售销售大跌,失业率迅速上涨。欧央行预期也将保持利率不变,尽管7月CPI年率上涨到4.1%,但经济前景暗淡,各国政客诸多抱怨,央行可能仅能保持强硬态度,难以付诸实践。关键事件前市场倾向清仓离场。

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    看来这周的机会很多啊。这个时候才是赚钱的时机

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    欧元一度跌至1.5514美元,不过此后又稳步收复了部分失地,原因是该数据报告同时显示,7月份失业率飙升至5.7%,创下4年来最高水平。东方汇理银行驻伦敦的资深外汇策略师Stuart Bennett称,尽管最新非农就业数据表现强于预期,但市场关注更多的还是失业率状况,毕竟美国劳动力市场风险犹存。另外,供应管理学会(ISM)制造业数据对美元带来双向影响;数据显示,7月份制造业活动指数仍处于增长区间,但略低于6月份表现。不足以令人信服的数据、油价高涨及股市走低均抑制了美元的升势。纽约汇市上周五后市,电子交易系统显示,欧元兑1.5541美元,上周四尾盘为1.5598美元。美元兑107.76日圆,上周四尾盘为107.85日圆。欧元兑167.47日圆,上周四尾盘为168.24日圆。英镑兑1.9743美元,上周四尾盘为1.9821美元。美元兑1.0514瑞士法郎,上周四尾盘为1.0475瑞士法郎。美国股市上周五收盘走低,受通用电气下挫及失业率报告表现疲弱拖累。在第二财季亏损155亿美元影响下,通用汽车收盘下跌7.6%;福特汽车跌3.1%。科技类股中,Sun电子计算机公司跌12%,因所公布的下一财年业绩预测数据弱于华尔街预期。道琼斯工业股票平均价格指数收盘跌0.5%,纳斯达克综合指数跌0.6%,费城证交所半导体分类指数跌0.8%。美国国债上周五收盘走高,收复了早些时候的失地,受油价上涨及股市走软提振;2年期国债收益率跌2.1个基点,至2.51%,10年期收益率跌3.3个基点,至3.94%。纽约商交所九月轻质低硫原油期货结算价升1.02美元,至每桶125.10美元,上涨原因是伊朗核计划方面再度出现紧张气氛,而炼油商们也在大量买进汽油期货。铂系金属价格上周五大幅下挫,因通用汽车亏损消息加剧了市场对汽车行业的担忧,这一因素近期已经拖低了铂系金属的价格。Comex十二月黄金期货跌5.20美元,至每盎司917.50美元。

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