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Thread: News Analysis (Fundamantel Analysis)

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    Thumbs up Senarai berita yang mempunyai kesan tinggi terhadap matawang sesuatu negara

    Di sini saya senaraikan berita yang mempunyai kesan tinggi terhadap matawang sesuatu negara:-

    Consumer Credit m/m
    Measures the total value of outstanding consumer installment debt, such as credit cards and auto loans. A rising trend has a positive effect on the nation's currency because historically consumer borrowing and spending have a high degree of correlation.

    Industrial Production m/m
    Measures the total value of output produced by factories, mines, and utilities. A rising trend has a positive effect on the nation's currency because high levels of production are a sign of a strong economy. Industrial Production reacts quickly to the ups and downs of the business cycle and can be a leading indicator of manufacturing employment, average earnings, and personal income. Traders pay special attention to Industrial Production because it's one of the few growth indicators that is produced directly by the Federal Reserve.

    Ivey PMI
    The Ivey Purchasing Manager's Index (PMI) measures the activity level of purchasing managers from all sectors of the economy, with a reading above 50 indicating expansion. A rising trend has a positive effect on the nation's currency. To produce the index, purchasing managers are surveyed on a number of subjects including employment, production, new orders, supplier deliveries, and inventories. Traders watch these surveys closely because purchasing managers, by virtue of their jobs, have early access to data about their companys performance, which can be a leading indicator of overall economic performance.

    PPI Input m/m
    The Producer Price Index (PPI) Input measures the rate of inflation (i.e., the rate of price changes) experienced by manufacturers when purchasing goods and services. A rising trend has a positive effect on the nation's currency. When manufactures pay more for goods and services, they are likely to pass the higher costs to the consumer, so PPI is thought to be a leading indicator of consumer inflation. PPI is highly regarded, and at extremes will have a market impact equal to that of its CPI counterpart.

    CPI y/y
    The Consumer Price Index (CPI) measures the rate of inflation (i.e., the rate of price changes) experienced by consumers when purchasing goods and services. A rising trend has a positive effect on the nation's currency. The primary objective of the central bank is to achieve price stability; when inflation rises above an annualized rate of approximately 2%, they will respond by raising interest rates to bring prices down. Higher interest rates attract foreign investment, thus increasing demand for the nation's currency. CPI is one of the most closely watched indicators and will usually have a high impact upon release.

    Average Earnings Index +Bonus q/y
    The Average Earnings Index (AEI) measures the average wage, including bonuses, paid to employees. The indicator reading represents the change in the current quarter when compared to the same quarter in the previous year.

    Core Retail Sales m/m
    Derivative of Retail Sales that excludes the Automobile Sales component. Automobile Sales make up roughly 25% of Retail Sales, but they can be very volatile from month to month and can distort the picture. Retail Sales with the exclusion of this volatile component is thought to be a better indicator of the underlying trend in consumer spending.

    Empire State Business Conditions Index
    Measures the general business conditions of manufacturers in New York State. The index is derived from a survey that asks respondents to rate the level of general business activity as 'decrease', 'increase', or 'no change'. A rising trend has a positive effect on the nation's currency because good manufacturing conditions are a sign of a strong economy. Although this survey is limited to manufacturers in New York only, traders pay close attention because the New York Federal Reserve releases it weeks before other major reports on manufacturing (e.g., Industrial Production, ISM Manufacturing Index).

    Employment Change
    Measures the number of new jobs created in the previous month. A rising trend has a positive effect on the nation's currency. The number of new jobs being created is one of the most important indicators of the economy's health because consumer spending, which is highly correlated with labor conditions, makes up a large portion of GDP. This report is the first of the month that relates to labor conditions, making it susceptible to big surprises.

    Trade Balance
    Measures the difference in value between imported and exported goods and services. A positive Trade Balance indicates that more goods and services were exported than imported over a given period. A rising trend has a positive effect on the nation's currency. When higher levels of exports are sold to the world, demand for the nation's currency is elevated as foreigners convert their native currency to purchase the exports. The Trade Balance also has a sizable impact on GDP because high demand for exports creates increased employment and production, as domestic factories work to fill this demand.

    Interest Rate Announcement
    Each month the European Central Bank (ECB) Governing Council meets to set the nation's short term interest rate (i.e., "minimum bid rate"). Shortly after the meeting they release a statement that contains the decided rate. While no commentary is provided, a press conference regarding the economic conditions that effected their decision is held a few hours afterward. A rising trend in interest rates has a positive effect on the nation's currency. Short term rates are the paramount factor in currency valuation; traders look at most other indicators merely to predict how interest rates may change in the future. High interest rates attract foreigners looking for the best "risk-free" return on their money, which can dramatically increases demand for the nation's currency. The decision on where to set interest rates depends mostly on inflation. The primary objective of the central bank is to achieve price stability; when inflation rises above an annualized rate of approximately 2%, they will respond by raising interest rates in an attempt to bring prices down.

    GDP q/q
    Gross Domestic Product (GDP) measures the total value of all goods and services produced by the economy. A rising trend has a positive effect on the nation's currency. GDP is the broadest measure of activity and the primary gauge of the economy's health. To foreign investors, a strong economy is viewed favorably because it spurs investment opportunities in the domestic stock and bond markets. More importantly, the central bank is more likely to raise interest rates in the face of a strong and growing economy. The combination of these effects can have a large impact on the demand for the nation's currency.

    TIC Net Long-Term Transactions
    Treasury International Capital (TIC) Net Long-Term Transactions measures the monthly difference in cross-border foreign and domestic purchases of long-term securities (i.e., bonds with an original maturity longer than one year). For example, if foreigners purchased $100 billion in U.S. securities, and the U.S. purchased $30 billion in foreign securities, the net reading would be $70 billion. A rising trend has a positive effect on the nation's currency because foreigners must first convert their domestic currency before they can purchase the nation's assets. This can dramatically elevate currency demand. Traders watch this indicator closely as it provides several insights into international currency flows.

    Consumer Sentiment (p)

    Measures consumer attitudes concerning both the present situation and future expectations. It's derived from a monthly 500-person survey conducted by the University of Michigan. Higher sentiment levels are a leading indicator of rising consumer spending, which accounts for two-thirds of the economy.
    Last edited by support fxmalay; 06-16-2007 at 02:03 PM.

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    ada baiknya thread ni dijadikan thread untuk analisis news... sapa-sapa yang mahir dalam analisis fundamental ni, baik curahkan ilmu kat sini...

    tambah sikit...

    news boleh ambik kat forex factory atau babypips...

    analisa matawang yang popular je seperti, usd, euro, gbp, yen, cad, chf..

    kalau boleh, boleh mula isnin ni...

    - adakah usd akan tambah lemah...
    - yen akan mula mengukuh
    - cad akan tambah kuat
    - dan blok eropah akan makin gagah

    news mana yang akan bagi up dan down sesuatu matawang..
    Last edited by FXM Teacher; 07-15-2007 at 12:43 PM.

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    Analisa news memang baik tetapi ia memakan masa untuk memberi penerangan yang panjang untuk pembaca memahaminya, jika tidak, memang susah untuk memahami cara traders memahami berita. Untuk masa sekarang, sesiapa sahaja boleh memberi pandangan di sini mengenai analisa fundamantel, tetapi maafkan saya kerana pada masa ini saya tidak dapat memberi penerangan untuk setiap news, tetapi saya akan memberi sekali sekala sahaja.

    Cara terbaik ialah, pembaca dapat belajar sendiri melalui impact yang terjadi disebabkan sesuatu berita, dan jika masih tidah faham mengapa ia berlaku, anda boleh bertanya di sini. Tapi sekurang-kurangnya, harap dapat analisa sedikit sebanyak sebelum bertanya.

    Bak kata pepatah..No Pain, No Gain.
    Regards,

    FXM Teacher sm_cool

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    berdasarkan news daripada forex factory, news untuk usd, actual kebanyakannya menurun berbanding previous, manakala untuk euro pula ( kebanyakan negara sekutu
    euro ) actualnya lebih baik berbanding previous. adakah ini menunjukkan bahawa matawang usd akan terus melemah dan matawang blok euro akan menguat terutamanya untuk bulan Julai ni. sehingga kini eurousd, gu, telah berjaya melepasi 1.38+++ dan gu telah melepasi 2.05+++.

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    ada sesiapa boleh beri penjelasan kenapa pair usdjpy,gbpjpy,usdchf jadi down trend pada jam 10 malam waktu malaysia dan apabila pair usdjpy, gbpjpy usdchf jadi down trend maka pair gbpusd akan up trend, ada sesiapa boleh beri penjelasan adakah ini kesan dari news sebab kalau dilihat pada forex factory matawang gbp menunjukkan baik,
    atau adakah sebab pasaran hendak ditutup sebab hari nie jumaat dan mungkin sebab itu, atau ada sebab lain

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    lewat malam semalam yen menguat, agaknya pengumuman ECB tu yang buat jatuh, tapi dibandingkan dengan usd, usd semakin lemah disebabkan tiada petunjuk yang baik, semua actual kebanyakannya tidak memihak us..

    agaknya la..he...he...

    tak payah nak pening-pening tgk indi, tgk news je untuk trade...

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    Quote Originally Posted by hangtuah View Post
    ada sesiapa boleh beri penjelasan kenapa pair usdjpy,gbpjpy,usdchf jadi down trend pada jam 10 malam waktu malaysia dan apabila pair usdjpy, gbpjpy usdchf jadi down trend maka pair gbpusd akan up trend, ada sesiapa boleh beri penjelasan adakah ini kesan dari news sebab kalau dilihat pada forex factory matawang gbp menunjukkan baik,
    atau adakah sebab pasaran hendak ditutup sebab hari nie jumaat dan mungkin sebab itu, atau ada sebab lain
    Ok, tidak bnyk org yang trade pair yen biasanya disebabkan ia tidak tentu arahnya, dan ia selalu berlaku.

    Mungkin anda tidak pernah dengar ini dari tempat atau baca ini dari tempat lain, tetapi jika anda ingin trade pair pair yen, satu benda utama yang anda perlu teliti dan fahamkan ialah Dow Jones Industrial Average Index, ia ialah satu daripada index pasaran saham di US.Untuk mudah memahaminya, jika indexnya turun, Yen akan menguat dan semua pair xxx/jpy akan turun dan sebaliknya. Dan pada masa yang anda nyatakan itu, index tersebut telah jatuh teruk ketika US ekuiti sell-off.

    P.S. This is a major tip untuk yang trade yen yang saya rasa anda tidak akan dapat dari tempat lain pada pendapat saya.
    Regards,

    FXM Teacher sm_cool

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    Quote Originally Posted by FXM Teacher View Post
    Ok, tidak bnyk org yang trade pair yen biasanya disebabkan ia tidak tentu arahnya, dan ia selalu berlaku.

    Mungkin anda tidak pernah dengar ini dari tempat atau baca ini dari tempat lain, tetapi jika anda ingin trade pair pair yen, satu benda utama yang anda perlu teliti dan fahamkan ialah Dow Jones Industrial Average Index, ia ialah satu daripada index pasaran saham di US.Untuk mudah memahaminya, jika indexnya turun, Yen akan menguat dan semua pair xxx/jpy akan turun dan sebaliknya. Dan pada masa yang anda nyatakan itu, index tersebut telah jatuh teruk ketika US ekuiti sell-off.

    P.S. This is a major tip untuk yang trade yen yang saya rasa anda tidak akan dapat dari tempat lain pada pendapat saya.
    thank for info,saya lebih berminat untuk trade ikut news sebab indicator akan out kalau news tidak memihak kita.boleh awak bagi maklumat kit tak kat mana saya nak dapatkan dow jones industrial average index nie

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    Quote Originally Posted by hangtuah View Post
    thank for info,saya lebih berminat untuk trade ikut news sebab indicator akan out kalau news tidak memihak kita.boleh awak bagi maklumat kit tak kat mana saya nak dapatkan dow jones industrial average index nie
    Anda boleh google untuk berita mengenai index tersebut ataupun stream dari mana-mana website yang ada servis itu seperti tersenarai di google.
    Regards,

    FXM Teacher sm_cool

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    Quote Originally Posted by FXM Teacher View Post
    Anda boleh google untuk berita mengenai index tersebut ataupun stream dari mana-mana website yang ada servis itu seperti tersenarai di google.
    Terima kasih, tips yg sgt berguna, hari ni pairs vs Jpy kebanyakkan jatuh selepas
    up side gap. Saya trade di demo acct. tak sampai 30 minit Eur/Jpy dan Usd/jpy dapat dalam 50 pips satu pairs.

    DJ Ind. Index mmg jatuh..sm_cool

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    News untuk berita GBP dan USD sukar di ramal kerana terdapat 2 hingga 3 berita dalam satu masa. Ini menyebabkan carta turun-naik. Saya biasa bermain pair yang berkaitan news seperti :-
    1. Canada (CAN) : 7.00 - 8.00 malam
    2. Australia (AUD) : 9.30 pagi
    3. New Zealand (NZD) : 6.00 pagi (bagus terus boleh sembahyang Subuh)
    4. Swirtzerland (CHF) : 4.00 petang

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    Ok, tidak bnyk org yang trade pair yen biasanya disebabkan ia tidak tentu arahnya, dan ia selalu berlaku.

    Mungkin anda tidak pernah dengar ini dari tempat atau baca ini dari tempat lain, tetapi jika anda ingin trade pair pair yen, satu benda utama yang anda perlu teliti dan fahamkan ialah Dow Jones Industrial Average Index, ia ialah satu daripada index pasaran saham di US.Untuk mudah memahaminya, jika indexnya turun, Yen akan menguat dan semua pair xxx/jpy akan turun dan sebaliknya. Dan pada masa yang anda nyatakan itu, index tersebut telah jatuh teruk ketika US ekuiti sell-off.

    P.S. This is a major tip untuk yang trade yen yang saya rasa anda tidak akan dapat dari tempat lain pada pendapat saya.
    News untuk berita GBP dan USD sukar di ramal kerana terdapat 2 hingga 3 berita dalam satu masa. Ini menyebabkan carta turun-naik. Saya biasa bermain pair yang berkaitan news seperti :-

    1. Canada (CAN) : 7.00 - 8.00 malam
    2. Australia (AUD) : 9.30 pagi
    3. New Zealand (NZD) : 6.00 pagi (bagus terus boleh sembahyang Subuh)
    4. Swirtzerland (CHF) : 4.00 petang
    wah, pakar forex dah turun ilmu, terima kasih bebanyak la...

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    ikut news lebih selamat

    salam buat semua...

    saya suka ikut news kerana ianya lebih selamat,contoh news utk esok ..
    ( dipetik dari forex factory )
    Tue
    Jul 24

    14:00 EUR German Import Price Index m/m 1.0% 0.3%
    14:45 EUR French Consumer Spending m/m 0.6% -0.8%
    15:30 JPY BOJ Governor Fukui Speaks
    16:00 EUR Manufacturing PMI (p) 55.5 55.6
    16:00 EUR Services PMI (p) 58.0 58.3
    16:00 EUR Italian Retail Sales m/m 1.0% -0.4%
    16:00 EUR Current Account 0.0B -4.0B

    jam 14:00ptg esok tunggu depan pc,EURJPY,EURAUD,EURUSD,EURGBP...pasti akan naik...
    tapi pada 15:30 kemungkinan EURJPY akan turun pula..

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    jam 14:00ptg esok tunggu depan pc,EURJPY,EURAUD,EURUSD,EURGBP...pasti akan naik...
    tapi pada 15:30 kemungkinan EURJPY akan turun pula..
    kalau bagi info pun biar atas analisa yang betul, news yang kuar tu impaknya cam mana, jangan nak bubuh je... kena tunggu actualnya keluar...

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    Quote Originally Posted by ambayutnatuk View Post
    kalau bagi info pun biar atas analisa yang betul, news yang kuar tu impaknya cam mana, jangan nak bubuh je... kena tunggu actualnya keluar...
    Iya....lebih baik analisis kemungkinan berapa actualnya keluar...

    Kalo nilai actualnya lebih besar cam mane impaknya..
    Kalo nilai actualnya lebih kecil cam mane impaknya...

    Terima kasih

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