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Thread: 经济疲软危及强势澳元

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    Default 经济疲软危及强势澳元

    本周四公布的澳大利亚6月经济活动数据再次令人失望。面对出口增长放缓和原油价格高企,澳大利亚8.25%利率开始显得过高。分析师们预期澳大利亚联储将在明年大幅降息,澳元即将展开一轮回调走势,到年底澳元兑美元(0.9291,-0.0125,-1.33%,吧)可能跌至0.90。

      今年4月~6月澳大利亚实际零售销售额连续第二个季度环比下跌,跌幅从一季度的0.3%增加到0.6%。更重要的警示信号是信贷增长的放缓。在过去的3个月内,信贷同比增幅从去年底的16.8%下滑到5.3%,并且在商业贷款、房地产贷款和个人贷款市场都有所体现。

      雷曼兄弟澳洲首席经济学家Stephen Roberts认为,澳大利亚国内支出增长正在迅速减速,这可能很快压过对高通胀的担忧,促使该国突然转变货币政策立场。

      荷兰银行驻澳大利亚首席外汇策略师Greg Gibbs表示,未来一个月澳元兑美元将回调到0.93附近,澳元疲软的阶段将持续几个月,在短期内不会有明显反弹,并且最终将跌至0.90。但从技术角度看,澳元兑美元此轮下跌走势展开以前,可能先上涨到0.9650~0.9675。

      Greg Gibbs建议投资者在0.944卖出澳元兑美元,第一个目标位是0.933,即今年6月份的低点,将止损线设在0.948~0.950区域。

      在芝加哥商业交易所投机性头寸中,除了澳元以外大多数主要货币都已经平仓。澳元目前的仓位仍然相当于次贷危机发生前创下的最高水平的3/4。其他货币因所在经济体降息已经先行回调,包括英镑、加元和新西兰元。随着市场预期澳大利亚联储将开始降息,澳元向下调整的空间很大。雷曼兄弟预期今年四季度澳元兑美元将下跌到0.85,明年一季度再跌到0.81。

      王蔚祺
    交易是1 件慎重的事情~~~

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    作为商品货币和高息货币的澳元自去年8月份以来备受投资者喜爱。经济增长保持强势、稳定的房屋市场、黄金价格走高和较高的投资收益,都曾是澳元升值的主要原因。但现在商品价格大幅下跌11%,黄金价格因美元反弹而回调,澳洲股市自去年11月份最高点至今已下滑23%。矿产业的繁荣支持澳元升值,但制造业也因强势澳元逐渐失去国际竞争力。澳洲较低的储蓄也迫使澳洲的银行业和金融机构更多依赖境外的资金来源。欧美工业国家的信贷危机也导致澳洲信贷业面临资金紧缩。此外,澳洲cpi继续上升。澳洲统计数据表明,第二季度cpi年率升至7年来最高,为4.5%,交通支出和财政保险支出的高企减少家庭其他消费支出。进口价格的下降并不能为防止全面通胀提供太多保障。

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