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Thread: 欧元面对严峻挑战

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    Default 欧元面对严峻挑战

    1999年1月1日,欧盟11国正式启动欧元。但是,要到2002年7月,创始国货币才全部退出历史舞台。在这三年过渡期,德国马克、法国法郎、意大利里拉等货币与欧元并存,同时发行和流通。这样双轨制的过渡期,为国际炒家利用欧元中央银行与各国中央银行之间政策取向的偏差,选择薄弱环节各个击破,提供了千载难逢的机会。典型的前车之鉴是1992年的英镑阻击战。当时欧洲汇率稳定体制(erm)中,弱势货币英镑兑马克币值明显偏高。英国既要维持货币币值(维持高息),又要摆脱经济衰退,唯一的出路是要求德国减息。可是,德国刚刚统一,西德马克与东德马克按一比一的汇率合二而一,为了抑制通货膨胀率飙升的强大压力,非但不能减息,反而要加息。于是,弱势英镑成为投机者大笔沽空的攻击目标。一场恶战下来,英镑被国际游资打出欧洲汇率稳定体制。索罗斯志得意满,大赚10亿英镑,英国财相灰头土脸,被迫辞职。

    如今,参与欧元的11个欧洲联盟国家中,各国的经济发展很不平衡,政策取向也不一致。这些民主国家的民选政府,政治必须服从选票,关键时刻制定政策,只能从本国选民的利益出发,很容易在货币政策上不能共同进退。欧元挑战美元,是一伙钩心斗角的联盟与一个统一强大的巨人搏斗,前景令人担忧。22如果说1992年,英镑和意大利里拉可以被相继打出欧洲汇率稳定体制(erm),不能说1999年以后,欧元区的其它货币,譬如德国马克,没有可能成为国际游资投机的目标。如今,德国对俄罗斯的巨额问题贷款已经可能冲击德国的银行体系。23与原东德和俄罗斯经济关系密切的东欧国家,受俄罗斯危机的直接拖累,波兰、捷克、匈牙利等国的货币已处风雨飘摇之中。24德国建议用欧元救援俄罗斯,希望由此把自己在东欧和俄国的利益卷成欧盟的集体行动。25如果俄罗斯和东欧情况恶化,影响到德国的货币和经济政策,造成德国与欧盟其它国家不一致的政策取向,逻辑上,不能排除马克面临1992年英镑处境的可能性。倘若马克受到强有力的冲击,甚至被打出欧元体系,欧元、乃至整个欧盟的前景都将面临空前未有的严峻考验
    交易是1 件慎重的事情~~~

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    Default

    有没有英磅方面的?

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